Profile
Keywords: | economics, policy, energy, land use, agriculture, biomass, biofuels |
FES Funded ProjectsOutputs
Title |
Category |
Date |
Authors |
Investment Decisions and Policy AnalysisWe presented a poster giving a broad overview of our FES project.T01-P02 University of Alberta, Silvacom | Activity | 2018-10-03 | Luckert, M., Qiu, F., Jay Anthony Anderson, Claire Doll, Grant K Hauer, Curtis John McKnight, Irene Onyango, Wilson, S. | Potential biorefinery sites based on agricultural residues in Alberta: A GIS-based approach with feedstock variabilityPrevious studies have optimized biorefinery sites using Geographical Information System (GIS)-based and/or math programming methods. However, few studies have considered feedstock variability over time. Agricultural yields in Alberta vary greatly from year-to-year because of weather conditions, thereby influencing residue availability for potential biorefineries. In this study we use a GIS-based method to integrate considerations of agricultural residue variability and spatially optimize biorefinery sites. We model variability using 40 years of spatial crop yield data from Alberta. Our results suggest that agricultural residue yields in northern regions of Alberta are likely too variable to support a biorefinery. However, there appear to be five potential sites in central and southern regions, with only one year out of 40 when two of the sites would have been unable to supply a biorefinery with a minimum agricultural residue capacity of 635,000 tonnes per year. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-01-09 | | Potential biorefinery sites based on agricultural residues in Alberta: A GIS-based approach with feedstock variabilityAlberta produces large quantities of agricultural crops and residues that could be used as feedstock for an emerging bioenergy industry. Key considerations in selecting potential biorefinery sites include: biomass yields and their variability (both spatial and temporal) and economic features (e.g. the plant’s road network accessibility). We build on the previous work and conduct a GIS-based analysis in Alberta at a high spatial resolution (i.e. 9.7km × 9.7km, the township level) with residues from four major crops (barley, canola, oats, and wheat). Previous studies have not investigated and incorporated yield variability over time into analyses beyond simple descriptive statistics.
T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | | Integrating stochastic agricultural residue supplies into biorefinery site selection: An Alberta case studyInvestigations into the viability of commercial biofuel production have considered plant scale, alternative feedstocks, average feedstock yields, and optimal plant location. However, few of these studies address variability and risk of feedstock supply, product prices, and costs on financial viability. This project is developing a modelling framework for considering these sources of risk that will extend models of optimal plant location and scale to include spatially defined feedstock supply risk. In this poster we focus on annual variability in feedstocks derived from agricultural residues, which depend on weather and crop choice. We derive stochastic supply curves which show how marginal delivery costs, quantity of feedstock, and haul zones for agricultural residues vary annually, at the plant gate. Investigating variability of supply has important implications, not only for determining optimal plant location and financial viability, but also for further investigations into how biofuel plants would have to manage and/or mitigate supply variability. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | | Future Prices for a Second-Generation Biofuel Industry: Market Linkages Between Canadian Wheat and US Energy and Agricultural CommoditiesIn 2016, Canada produced approximately 30 million tonnes of wheat. Residues from wheat production represent a potential feedstock for second-generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol. The production of second-generation ethanol from wheat residues, relative to first-generation ethanol, has the potential to reduce competition of land for food production and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Prospects for a second-generation biofuel industry in Canada will be dependent on future price patterns of Canadian wheat and related markets, which could be related to historical dependence among these markets. We investigate market linkages between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices, as well as price and volatility dynamics. Understanding price relationships could reduce the risk associated with price uncertainty and investment decision making.
T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | | Prices for a second‐generation biofuel industry in Canada: Market linkages between Canadian wheat and US energy and agricultural commoditiesThe production of biofuels is limited in Canada, but the availability of wheat straw as a second‐generation (i.e., cellulosic) feedstock is an exciting prospect for the future development of a biofuel industry. The future success of such a biofuel industry will depend on future ethanol prices and prices related to wheat straw. These prices are likely to be influenced by markets related to the existing first‐generation ethanol industry in the United States. Therefore, the motivation of this paper is to investigate relationships between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We employ a DCC‐MGARCH enhanced VEC model to investigate time‐varying relationships among these markets. Results indicate that there are positive relationships between wheat and corn, ethanol and corn, and wheat and ethanol markets. Our results add to a better understanding of the level of integration between select Canadian agricultural markets and US energy markets. More specifically, the price relationships identified highlight several sources of price risk that may affect the financial success of commercially producing second‐generation ethanol from wheat straw in Canada. This information will be of particular interest to prospective industry investors and policymakers.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-06-20 | | Volatility Transmission Effects Between Canadian Wheat and US Energy and Agricultural CommoditiesSecond generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol can be made from wheat straw. Investment in biorefineries that use wheat straw as a feedstock may be dependent on the relationships between wheat, ethanol, and related market prices. We use a BEKK-MGARCH enhanced VEC model to identify the relationships between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices from 2008 to 2018. Firstly, we estimate short-term price adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships between each price series. Secondly, we investigate the extent to which price return volatility in one market is transferred to other markets. Results suggest that: 1) ethanol and wheat prices are sensitive to short run price changes in corn markets and to changes to the long-run relationship between all four prices; and 2) the direction and magnitude of volatility spillovers between each market price are affected by historical periods of high price return volatility. Our results have important implications to biofuel producers considering new investments, as well as to policy makers interested in attracting such investments. Specifically, second-generation biofuel producers should consider risk management strategies that minimize their exposure to related markets, especially during international economic events. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-08-21 | | Facility siting for a forest residue-based biorefinery considering variation of commercial timber harvestsIn this study, we evaluate variability in commercial timber harvest and how it may impact on the decisions on where to locate a forestry residue based biofuel facility. We consider collocating the biofuel facility either near a pulpmill or sawmill depending on the facility with a relatively stable supply of commercial timber. Our case study is the province of Alberta, Canada. We find that pulpwood harvests have lower variation than logs harvest therefore we select pulpmill locations as potential biofuel facility sites. We evaluate available residue and annual average delivery cost per odt based on 300 km haul radius from the potential locations, and rank the locations starting from the least cost per odt. We find that on average, there are about 2.2 million odt per year that can be generated from commercial harvesting of timber in Alberta. Hinton has the least cost per odt ($86.20) followed by Whitecourt ($86.30). Each has a capacity of 800,000 and one million odt per year respectively. Peace River and Boyle rank last with $91.57 and $93.23 per odt respectively even though Peace River has the highest odt (1.4 million) per year at this haul radius. We also observe that variability in commercial timber harvesting can influence the cost of delivering residue by up to 7%, but does not influence the ranking of the potential locations. Therefore, variability of available residue should be a key factor to consider when making decisions regarding biorefinery facility siting, making it important that inter year variability in available residue be factored in decision making. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2020-01-02 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Markets Vulnerable to Crude Oil Price Shocks? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesCrude oil prices are particularly relevant to jet fuel and diesel producers because these two types of energy are made.
We ask the question: whether and to what extent are price shocks to crude oil markets transmitted to jet fuel and diesel markets? To answer this question, in this poster we examine price transmissions in US energy markets.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | | MODELING VARIABILITY IN BIOMASS FEEDSTOCK SUPPLIES WITH LIMITED DATA: AN APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES CLUSTERINGSuppose you have the technology for bioenergy production using agricultural (i.e. crop) or forest residues. Policy makers and investors want to have consistent and reliable sources of feedstock supply. Variability of feedstock supply is important because it can impact factors, such as:
- Feasibility and/or optimality of biorefinery location
- Optimal distance between biorefineries
- Travel distance and travel cost required to obtain enough feedstock
- The variability of the radius of the supply z one from year to year
- Degree of correlation between crop yields of different areas (e.g. counties) within the supply radius – higher correlation would imply higher supply variability
Therefore, it is important to estimate the sample correlation accurately, which is the focus of this poster presentation. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | | Price Relationships for Ethanol Production in CanadaCanada currently imports ethanol to satisfy government mandates for blending renewable fuels with gasoline. Ethanol can be produced from wheat straw. Canada, a large wheat producer, may have an opportunity to develop an ethanol industry. The potential to yield strong returns from ethanol production will depend on future prices. Future prices may be affected by current prices, international economic events, or price movements in related markets.
Our study will help biorefinery investors understand:
- How Canadian wheat markets and related markets may be affected by general economic conditions.
- If there is a significant relationship between Canadian wheat and US ethanol markets.
- If price relationship are static or time-varying.
This information will also be important for policymakers who want to understand conditions that biorefinery investors face.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | | Economic and Policy Considerations for Biomass EnergyOral presentation given to the University of Alberta and University of Calgary Bioenergy Research Group. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-28 | | Economic Aspects of BiojetPresented to the Alberta Biojet Initiative steering committee.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-09-30 | | Facility siting for a forest residue-based biorefinery considering annual variability in commercial timber harvests in Alberta, CanadaDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | | Modeling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Data ClusteringDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | | Investment Decisions and Policy Analysis of Biomass EnergyWe were contacted by ExxonMobil and asked to give an hour presentation highlighting our research program to 105 ExxonMobil scientists and engineers. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-02-01 | Qiu, F., Grant K Hauer, Jay Anthony Anderson | Modeling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Data ClusteringFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multidisciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. We then recorded a 2-minute video in which we present our poster (as if to a live audience). The video along with the poster is available on the conference website (https://caes-scae.ca/blog/11th-annual-agri-food-policy-poster-competition/).
T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-01-18 | | Modeling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Data ClusteringFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multidisciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-03-29 | | Bioenergy Feedstock Supply from Wheat Straw: A Farm Level Model with Crop Choices, Disease Risks and Soil Trade-offsSecond-generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol can be made from crop residues, but the availability of residues for ethanol production is uncertain. Farmers have the option to grow different crops (with and without residues could be used for biofuel production), and residues could be sold to alternative markets, such as livestock bedding, feed, and biorefineries, or left in the field to improve soils. Taking Canadian wheat straw supply as an example, we develop a dynamic programming model to investigate a farmer’s wheat straw supply decision in response to different wheat straw and grain prices. Our model considers crop choices between wheat and canola in the context of disease risk, and the trade-off between the immediate payoffs a farmer may receive from bailing and selling wheat straw, and the long-term adverse affects that removing wheat straw from the soil surface may have on wheat and canola yields. The results from this study illuminate conditions that could result in the supply of wheat straw to biorefineries, which impact the productivity of farmland.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-02-27 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multi-disciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. We then recorded a 2-minute video in which we present our poster (as if to a live audience). The video along with the poster is available on the conference website (https://caes-scae.ca/blog/11th-annual-agri-food-policy-poster-competition/).T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-01-18 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesWenbei's oral presentation was awarded the $500 Air Canada prize for best presentation. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-03-29 | | Asymmetric Price Transmission and Impulse Responses Between Crude Oil, Jet Fuel, and DieselPrice transmission from oil to fuel markets exposes underlying market structures and behaviors, such as competitiveness and market power, which are relevant for developing energy outlooks and policy. Many studies have investigated price interdependences in petroleum markets, particularly pass-through effects from oil to gasoline. However, research is scarce on impacts of oil markets on jet fuel (a fast-growing market) and diesel (the staple fuel of ground transportation). This absence of information is particularly noteworthy as technological change is progressing that could substitute bio-feedstock for oil to produce biojet and biodiesel. An understanding of pass-through price relationships between current energy inputs and outputs is crucial to developing industrial risk management strategies, and assisting the development of emerging energy industries. Using a nonlinear time series econometric approach, we examine price transmission from crude oil to jet fuel and diesel. Specifically, we investigate asymmetric price adjustments and the dynamic paths of price adjustments in response to crude oil price shocks. Key results include: (1) both jet fuel and diesel have long-run equilibrium relationships with oil prices; (2) price adjustments of jet fuel and diesel are asymmetric, in opposite directions due to distinct differences in industrial characteristics; (3) the responses of the two types of fuel prices to oil shocks show non-linear dynamic paths, with different amplitudes and decay periods. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the current fuel industries, and provide insights into emerging biofuel markets, with implications for businesses and policymakers. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-01-13 | | The price of plant-based air travel: A review of biojet financial analysesT01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2020-04-15 | | Economic Opportunities and Challenges in Biojet Production: A Literature Review and AnalysisDespite the urgency of climate change action, air travel and associated greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase. The use of aviation biofuel, or biojet, has emerged as a potential way for the sector to pursue emissions targets. However, global uptake of biojet has remained negligible. Numerous sources have speculated on economic reasons for biojet’s lack of commercial success, but there have been few reviews across experts that have identified key causes. Our approach is to compile the views of experts through a comprehensive literature review (covering over 200 sources between 2003 and 2020) that explores the opportunities and challenges (OACs) for the emergence of a biojet industry through an economic lens. We categorize OACs into identified factors (e.g. high costs of production) and track the number of times each factor is mentioned. We use these counts to rank OAC factors and note how these factors are associated with concepts of demand, supply and investments in biojet. We also examine how numbers of citations for key opportunities and challenges have changed over time. The highest ranked opportunities are associated with demand-side factors (e.g. increasing demand for reduced emissions), while the highest ranked challenges are associated with supply-side factors (e.g. high costs of production). Policy considerations, which could affect demand and/or supply, are also highly ranked, but like many factors, are viewed as both opportunities and challenges. Overall, the literature tends to be optimistic towards future demand, but pessimistic towards future supply, with the bottom line indicating few prospects for current investments in biojet. Given the ongoing confidence in demand for biojet, this situation could potentially be changed with future investments in research to reduce costs and uncertainty, along with clarifications of policies that could incentivize biojet production.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-02-08 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesWe submitted a pre-recorded video for the poster presentation. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-03-09 | | Economic Aspects of BiojetPresented to the Alberta Biojet Initiative steering committee.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-05-27 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesWhat are price relationships between crude oil and jet fuel/diesel like? How might this information help develop emerging biofuel industries? T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-05-10 | | Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesDo oil prices impact the use of biofuels? How can hydrogen fuel cell technologies be improved? Can we ensure the electrical grid works with new energy sources and demands, including electric vehicles? Do evolving public opinions of oil and gas impact our society over time? What’s the effect of global coal mining on communities?
Explore these questions and more with a team of U of A grad students and postdocs who have five minutes each to explain their research before answering your questions.
This webinar is presented in partnership with the U of A’s Future Energy Systems program.
T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-10 | | The development of advanced biofuels: potential impacts on land use and ecosystemsFeng gave a presentation of our work to members of Alberta Land Institute to explore the potential for future collaboration. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-09 | | Biofuel Opportunity: Assessing the potential of biofuels based on crop residues in CanadaFeng taught the 3rd session in a 6-session free online course on Climate Change and the Economics of World Food and Agriculture. The course was open to the public, and introduced participants to relevant economics concepts and approaches, illustrated the application of those concepts and approaches, and reviewed relevant empirical evidence from Canada and around the developing world. The course also addressed the dilemmas associated with technologies (eg biotechnologies, antibiotics, precision agriculture), new energy sources (eg solar, wind, biofuel), markets for new products (eg carbon, plant proteins, indexed insurance), and social protection against risks (eg floods, droughts, pests).T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-15 | | The Potential of Low Grade Canola Feedstock for Biojet Refineries in Alberta: A GIS-Based AnalysisThis meeting was with representatives from Forge Hydrocarbons, which is one of our Knowledge Users. We presented our work on the supply of low grade canola for use as biojet feedstock. Representatives from Forge are interested in the results of this work. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-14 | | The Potential of Low Grade Canola Feedstock for Biojet Refineries in Alberta: A GIS-Based AnalysisThis meeting was with representatives from Alberta Biojet Initiative, which is one of our Collaborators. We presented our work on the supply of low grade canola for use as biojet feedstock. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-04-27 | | Biofuel Opportunities for the Canadian Prairies and AlbertaThe rapid growth of the biofuel industry has brought economic and environmental benefits, but it has also caused serious social and other environmental problems, such as food vs. fuel and land-use changes. This presentation will first review first-generation biofuels’ overall development and constraints in the United States and Canada. Then, we will focus on the opportunities for Canada to develop a second-generation biofuel industry based on agricultural residues.
Using disaggregated crop production data and a GIS-based approach, we examine the available and accessible biomass from crop residues and identifies the locations of potential biorefinery sites in the Canadian Prairies. Our analysis suggests twelve potential biorefinery locations: six in Alberta, five in Saskatchewan, and one in Manitoba. If all the plants are built, they can process about 40% of the total available biomass (i.e., 35.4 Mt residues) of the Prairies and produce about 4 billion ethanol each year. Our study confirms that Prairies have a great potential to develop a commercialized advanced biofuel industry. In addition to the biofuel sector, the presentation will also discuss welfare implications for local farmers and regional development.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-10-14 | | Supplies of Fuel-Grade Canola Oil for Low-Carbon Fuel Production: A GIS-Based Economic Analysis in AlbertaThis meeting was with representatives from Imperial Oil, which is one of our Knowledge Users. We presented our work on the supply of low grade canola for use as biofuel feedstock. Representatives from Imperial are interested in the results of this work given Imperial's proposal to build a large renewable diesel biorefinery just outside Edmonton.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-12-01 | | The Potential of Low Grade Canola Feedstock for Biojet Refineries in Alberta: A GIS-Based AnalysisThis poster investigates prospects for a fuel-grade canola oil supply chain that prioritizes the use of non-No. 1 Canola as a biofuel feedstock. Using low-grade canola oil to produce biofuels can reduce feedstock costs and offers the opportunity to utilize existing petroleum infrastructure to transport and store canola oil, thereby reducing capital costs for biorefinery investments. We conduct a township-level GIS analysis to assess the availability of canola seed in Alberta and identify potential fuel-grade crushing sites based on the amount of annually accessible non-No. 1 Canola.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-09-20 | | Potential Supplies of Fuel‐Grade Canola Oil for Low‐Carbon Fuel Production in Alberta, Canada: GIS Analysis Using an Improved Service‐Area ApproachOur study investigates prospects for a fuel-grade canola oil supply chain that prioritizes the use of non-No. 1 Canola as a biofuel feedstock. Using low-grade canola oil to produce biofuels can reduce feedstock costs and offer the opportunity to utilize existing petroleum infrastructure to transport and store canola oil, thereby reducing capital costs for biorefinery invest- ments. We conducted a township-level GIS analysis to assess the availability of canola seed in Alberta and identify potential fuel-grade crushing sites based on the amount of annually accessible non-No. 1 Canola. Using an improved service-area approach, we identify three potential sites for fuel-grade crushers, all of which had sufficient seed to produce, on average, over 65 thousand tonnes of oil per year (from 2016 to 2019). Northwestern Alberta appears to be especially suitable for a fuel-grade canola crushing plant, since it has the highest average amounts of non-No. 1 seed, and there are no existing food- grade crushers to compete with. Results further show that spatial and temporal variation in canola harvests impacts how much non-No.1 seed is available and could therefore influence investment decisions on where to locate fuel-grade canola crushing plants. New fuel-grade crushing plants could also stimulate regional development and boost incomes for local canola producers. Our analysis is relevant to policy and business decisions related to fuel-grade canola oil supply chain investments.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-04-01 | | Thought for Fuel: Planning Canada's Biofuel RoadmapAn online Zoom lecture hosted by Edmonton Public Libraries
The Energy Talks online speaker series is presented as a partnership between Edmonton Public Libraries and Future Energy Systems. The talks focus on multidisciplinary research that develops the energy technologies of today and the near future, integrates them into today’s infrastructure, and examines possible consequences for our society, economy, and environment. Energy Talks provides an opportunity for you to engage with researchers and learn more about their work.
DESCRIPTION
The rapid growth of the biofuel industry has brought economic and environmental benefits, but it has also caused serious social and other environmental problems, such as food vs. fuel and land-use changes. This presentation will first review first-generation (sourced from feed/food crops) biofuels’ overall development and constraints in the United States and Canada. Then, we will focus on the opportunities for Canada to develop a second-generation biofuel industry based on agricultural residues.
T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-04-27 | | Economics of biojetPresented to the Alberta Biojet Initiative steering committee.T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-10-27 | | The Resilience of Biofuel Supply: Feedstock Availability, Financial Viability, and Market CompetitionFeng gave a talk on biofuels and agriculture, which reviewed the overall developments and constraints in biofuel production in the United States and Canada, and discussed opportunities for (western) Canada to develop a second generation biofuel industry based on agricultural residues and crops. T01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-01-26 | | Biojet economicsT01-P02 University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-03-30 | |
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