| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multi-disciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. We then recorded a 2-minute video in which we present our poster (as if to a live audience). The video along with the poster is available on the conference website (https://caes-scae.ca/blog/11th-annual-agri-food-policy-poster-competition/). University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-01-18 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesWe submitted a pre-recorded video for the poster presentation. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-03-09 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Bioenergy Feedstock Supply from Wheat Straw: A Farm Level Model with Multiple Markets, Disease Risks and Soil Trade-offsFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multidisciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. We then recorded a 2-minute video in which we present our poster (as if to a live audience). The video along with the poster is available on the conference website (https://caes-scae.ca/blog/11th-annual-agri-food-policy-poster-competition/).
| Activity | 2021-01-18 | Curtis John McKnight, Grant K Hauer |
| Facility siting for a forest residue-based biorefinery considering annual variability in commercial timber harvests in Alberta, CanadaDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | Irene Onyango, Jay Anthony Anderson, Armstrong, G., Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| MODELING VARIABILITY IN BIOMASS FEEDSTOCK SUPPLIES WITH LIMITED DATA: AN APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES CLUSTERINGSuppose you have the technology for bioenergy production using agricultural (i.e. crop) or forest residues. Policy makers and investors want to have consistent and reliable sources of feedstock supply. Variability of feedstock supply is important because it can impact factors, such as:
- Feasibility and/or optimality of biorefinery location
- Optimal distance between biorefineries
- Travel distance and travel cost required to obtain enough feedstock
- The variability of the radius of the supply z one from year to year
- Degree of correlation between crop yields of different areas (e.g. counties) within the supply radius – higher correlation would imply higher supply variability
Therefore, it is important to estimate the sample correlation accurately, which is the focus of this poster presentation. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | Wanjing (Amy) Xu, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Price Relationships for Ethanol Production in CanadaCanada currently imports ethanol to satisfy government mandates for blending renewable fuels with gasoline. Ethanol can be produced from wheat straw. Canada, a large wheat producer, may have an opportunity to develop an ethanol industry. The potential to yield strong returns from ethanol production will depend on future prices. Future prices may be affected by current prices, international economic events, or price movements in related markets.
Our study will help biorefinery investors understand:
- How Canadian wheat markets and related markets may be affected by general economic conditions.
- If there is a significant relationship between Canadian wheat and US ethanol markets.
- If price relationship are static or time-varying.
This information will also be important for policymakers who want to understand conditions that biorefinery investors face. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | Curtis John McKnight, Qiu, F., Luckert, M. |
| Wheat Straw Supply for Ethanol Production in CanadaGovernment regulation requires renewable fuel content to be blended with gasoline. Canada currently imports ethanol to meet demand. Cellulosic ethanol can be made locally from wheat straw. Ethanol producers require a reliable feedstock source. However, the availability of wheat straw as an ethanol feedstock is uncertain. An important source of uncertainty is whether, and at what price, farmers would be willing to sell their wheat straw.
Our study provides important information for:
- Investors looking to finance biorefinery projects.
- Policy makers wanting to understand conditions that a potentially emerging industry will face.
- Farmers who make decisions regarding whether to retain or sell straw. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | Curtis John McKnight, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Jay Anthony Anderson |
| All on Board, Biojet Fuel is Taking off (Or Not): Analyzing Financial Uncertainty for Biojet in North AmericaPresentation for the Three Minute Thesis competition | Activity | 2022-09-06 | Muhammad Shah |
| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Markets Vulnerable to Crude Oil Price Shocks? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesCrude oil prices are particularly relevant to jet fuel and diesel producers because these two types of energy are made.
We ask the question: whether and to what extent are price shocks to crude oil markets transmitted to jet fuel and diesel markets? To answer this question, in this poster we examine price transmissions in US energy markets. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-20 | Wenbei Zhang, Qiu, F., Luckert, M. |
| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesWenbei's oral presentation was awarded the $500 Air Canada prize for best presentation. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-03-29 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesWhat are price relationships between crude oil and jet fuel/diesel like? How might this information help develop emerging biofuel industries? University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-05-10 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Are Jet Fuel and Diesel Prices Vulnerable to Crude Oil Markets? Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesDo oil prices impact the use of biofuels? How can hydrogen fuel cell technologies be improved? Can we ensure the electrical grid works with new energy sources and demands, including electric vehicles? Do evolving public opinions of oil and gas impact our society over time? What’s the effect of global coal mining on communities?
Explore these questions and more with a team of U of A grad students and postdocs who have five minutes each to explain their research before answering your questions.
This webinar is presented in partnership with the U of A’s Future Energy Systems program.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-10 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Bioenergy Feedstock Supply from Wheat Straw: A Farm Level Model with Multiple Markets, Disease Risks and Soil Trade-offsDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government. | Activity | 2020-11-23 | Curtis John McKnight, Grant K Hauer |
| Biofuel Feedstock Supply from Wheat Straw: A Farm Level Model Incorporating Trade-offs in Crop Choices, Disease Risk and Soil FertilitySecond-generation biofuel (e.g., ethanol, renewable diesel) can be made from crop residues. However, the availability of residues for biofuel production is uncertain, because farmers have the option to grow different crops and use the residues for alternative purposes, such as livestock bedding and feed, or leave them in the field to improve soil quality. Taking Canadian wheat straw supply as an example, we develop a dynamic programming model to investigate a farmer's wheat straw supply decision in response to different wheat straw and grain prices. Our model considers crop choices between wheat and canola in the context of disease risk, the trade-off between the immediate payoffs a farmer may receive from bailing and selling wheat straw, and the long-term adverse effects that removing wheat straw from the soil surface may have on wheat and canola yields. The results from this study provide insights into how farm-level supply decisions, in response to wheat straw price changes, affect soil quality dynamics and scale up to regional wheat straw supply for biofuel production. This information also has implications for land use change and the sustainability of feedstock supply for biofuels. University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-07-18 | Curtis John McKnight, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Biofuel Opportunities for the Canadian Prairies and AlbertaThe rapid growth of the biofuel industry has brought economic and environmental benefits, but it has also caused serious social and other environmental problems, such as food vs. fuel and land-use changes. This presentation will first review first-generation biofuels’ overall development and constraints in the United States and Canada. Then, we will focus on the opportunities for Canada to develop a second-generation biofuel industry based on agricultural residues.
Using disaggregated crop production data and a GIS-based approach, we examine the available and accessible biomass from crop residues and identifies the locations of potential biorefinery sites in the Canadian Prairies. Our analysis suggests twelve potential biorefinery locations: six in Alberta, five in Saskatchewan, and one in Manitoba. If all the plants are built, they can process about 40% of the total available biomass (i.e., 35.4 Mt residues) of the Prairies and produce about 4 billion ethanol each year. Our study confirms that Prairies have a great potential to develop a commercialized advanced biofuel industry. In addition to the biofuel sector, the presentation will also discuss welfare implications for local farmers and regional development. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-10-14 | Qiu, F. |
| Biojet economics University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-03-30 | Qiu, F., Luckert, M., Jay Anthony Anderson |
| Breaking Down Feedstock SupplyMarty was an invited panelist in the session titled "Breaking down feedstock supply." University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-25 | Luckert, M. |
| Canadian Forest Policy: Where to from here?In this 60-minute presentation Marty overviewed the following challenges emerging within Canada's forest sector:
- Global trends towards plantations where Canada does not have a geographical advantage
- More forest demands from more places (recreation, biodiversity, Indigenous Peoples)
- Changing uses of forests (e.g., food, fuel and fiber) and forest products (e.g., the demise of newsprint)
- Global warming
Marty then explained how many of these challenges could also be opportunities with a better forest policy framework.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-10-07 | Luckert, M. |
| Cultivating a Greener Future: Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel. University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-10-21 | Qiu, F. |
| Economic and Policy Considerations for Biomass Energy Dr. Luckert participated in the Joint Workshop on Bio-Energy organized by the Mexican Secretariat of Energy (SENER) and the Mexican Centres of Innovation in Bioenergy (CEMIE-Bio) in Mexico City, Mexico, 7-8 May 2018. He delivered a presentation titled: "Economic and Policy Considerations for Biomass Energy."
The objective of this workshop was to lay the foundation for a collaborative research program on sustainable energy in the sector of biofuels (clusters: acohols & jet-fuels) between researchers from Future Energy Systems and the Mexican Centres of Innovation in Bioenergy (CEMIE-Bio). University of Alberta | Activity | 2018-05-07 | Luckert, M. |
| Economic and Policy Considerations for Biomass EnergyOral presentation given to the University of Alberta and University of Calgary Bioenergy Research Group. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-02-28 | Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Economic Opportunities and Challenges in Biojet Production: A Literature Review and AnalysisBiofuel, or biojet, has emerged as a way for the air transport sector to pursue emissions targets. But to date, global biojet production and use has been negligible. A number of experts have discussed reasons for this lack of development, along with the drivers for the industry’s historical and future development. In this study, we compile expert opinions through a comprehensive literature review that explores the relative importance of various opportunities and challenges (OACs) for the biojet industry through an economic lens. Approximately 200 relevant publications, which collectively identified over 70 OACs, were reviewed. For each OAC, counts of citations were documented. The most frequently mentioned opportunity for biojet production was the increasing demand for air travel and its associated increase in emissions, followed by the aviation industry’s lack of liquid fuel alternatives and supportive government policy. On the other hand, the high total cost of biojet production was most often identified in the list of challenges, followed by the challenges of feedstock availability and fulfilling sustainability criteria. The large amount of data available in publications also allowed us to track challenges and opportunities over time. For example, until the mid-2010s, the number of cited opportunities were somewhat higher than the number of cited challenges; but in the last 5 years, challenges were more frequently cited, potentially indicating increasing pessimism for biojet prospects. Ultimately, whether (or to what extent) a biojet sector emerges will depend on its profitability. This review indicates numerous aspects that will influence the economic prospects for biojet, some of which are more important than others, but all of which are interrelated and ultimately come together to influence biojet profitability. | Activity | 2020-09-02 | Meghan Lim |
| Economic prospects for forest biofuels The role of forests in contributing to social demands is expanding, with second generation (i.e. cellulosic) biofuels being an area of potential growth. Forest biomass for making biofuels could come from a number of sources including: existing trees, plantations, harvesting residues, and processing residues. But each of these sources has potential economic limitations in terms of amounts available, collection costs, opportunity costs of current uses, uncertain future prices, uncertain supplies and government policies. Given these limitations, current conditions indicate that it will be difficult for forests to be used as economically viable sources for second generation biofuels. However, the future role of forests and biofuels will depend on a number of factors that can change rapidly, including technology, government policies, and prices of inputs and outputs.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-09-15 | Luckert, M. |
| Economics of biojetPresented to the Alberta Biojet Initiative steering committee. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-10-27 | Luckert, M., Qiu, F., Jay Anthony Anderson |
| Establishing hybrid poplar plantations in western Canada for biofuel feedstock and carbon offsets: A forest-level financial analysisWe develop a forest-level model that considers hybrid poplar plantations on private and public land, and estimates how the plantations impact harvest levels and net present values. With this model we simulate three policy changes: 1) hybrid plantations on private lands, with annual allowable cuts calculated over combined private and public lands; 2) the first policy, but in addition hybrid poplar plantations are allowed on public lands; and 3) the second policy, with the addition of carbon offsets. We are interested in whether the increase in harvest levels created by the policies justify the establishment cost of the plantations, and if so, whether the increase in harvest might be enough to supply a biorefinery. Our results suggest that jointly managing public and private lands under sustained yield can increase harvest by 67% and increase the value of the operation by 35%. It therefore appears that hybrid poplar plantations could enable a large public land leaseholder to initiate an allowable cut effect and thereby increase harvest enough to supply two new biorefineries in addition to its existing pulp mill. However, under these scenarios the forest carbon inventory declines, and therefore accounting for carbon is not as profitable as the no-carbon scenario. University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | "Ashan Shooshtarian", Jay Anthony Anderson, Luckert, M., Armstrong, G. |
| Financial implications of carbon credits for forest plantations in Canada This presentation explained how the financial returns to growing trees are typically bad, especially so in northern climates (like Canada’s) with indigenous tree species where growth rates are low. But these northern forests play significant roles in carbon balances. The research question explored is: if carbon is valued, does it make much of a difference to financial returns to plantations?
University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-11-04 | Luckert, M., Jay Anthony Anderson, Armstrong, G. |
| Financial implications of carbon credits for forest plantations in Canada Financial returns to growing trees are typically bad, especially so in northern climates (like Canada’s) with indigenous species where growth rates are low. But these northern forests play significant roles in carbon balances, and may compete for land with agriculture. Therefore, both forests and agriculture could be influenced by emerging carbon policies. The research question we explore: if carbon is valued, does it make much of a difference to financial returns to plantations and land competition with agriculture?
University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-12-10 | Luckert, M., Jay Anthony Anderson, Armstrong, G. |
| Future Prices for a Second-Generation Biofuel Industry: Market Linkages Between Canadian Wheat and US Energy and Agricultural CommoditiesIn 2016, Canada produced approximately 30 million tonnes of wheat. Residues from wheat production represent a potential feedstock for second-generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol. The production of second-generation ethanol from wheat residues, relative to first-generation ethanol, has the potential to reduce competition of land for food production and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Prospects for a second-generation biofuel industry in Canada will be dependent on future price patterns of Canadian wheat and related markets, which could be related to historical dependence among these markets. We investigate market linkages between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices, as well as price and volatility dynamics. Understanding price relationships could reduce the risk associated with price uncertainty and investment decision making.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | Curtis John McKnight, Qiu, F., Luckert, M., Grant K Hauer, Jay Anthony Anderson |
| Integrating stochastic agricultural residue supplies into biorefinery site selection: An Alberta case studyInvestigations into the viability of commercial biofuel production have considered plant scale, alternative feedstocks, average feedstock yields, and optimal plant location. However, few of these studies address variability and risk of feedstock supply, product prices, and costs on financial viability. This project is developing a modelling framework for considering these sources of risk that will extend models of optimal plant location and scale to include spatially defined feedstock supply risk. In this poster we focus on annual variability in feedstocks derived from agricultural residues, which depend on weather and crop choice. We derive stochastic supply curves which show how marginal delivery costs, quantity of feedstock, and haul zones for agricultural residues vary annually, at the plant gate. Investigating variability of supply has important implications, not only for determining optimal plant location and financial viability, but also for further investigations into how biofuel plants would have to manage and/or mitigate supply variability. University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | Grant K Hauer, Qiu, F., Luckert, M. |
| Investment Decisions and Policy AnalysisWe presented a poster giving a broad overview of our FES project. University of Alberta, Silvacom | Activity | 2018-10-03 | Luckert, M., Qiu, F., Jay Anthony Anderson, Claire Doll, Grant K Hauer, Curtis John McKnight, Irene Onyango, Wilson, S. |
| Lower-grade canola oil for biofuel: production capacity and potential impacts on food supply and price.Lightning talks, presented at the 14th Annual Canadian Agri-Food Policy Conference, Ottawa, Ontario, Jan 26, 2024. University of Alberta | Activity | 2024-01-26 | Qiu, F. |
| Modeling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Data ClusteringDuring the week of November 23-27, 2020, Future Energy Systems hosted a Digital Research Showcase. During this event, we showcased our poster on Twitter and interacted with virtual guests from around the world, representing a variety of sectors of academia, industry, and government. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | Wanjing (Amy) Xu, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Modeling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Data ClusteringFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multidisciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. We then recorded a 2-minute video in which we present our poster (as if to a live audience). The video along with the poster is available on the conference website (https://caes-scae.ca/blog/11th-annual-agri-food-policy-poster-competition/).
University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-01-18 | Wanjing (Amy) Xu, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Modeling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Data ClusteringFor this competition, we prepared our poster for a multidisciplinary audience. We focused on the policy rationale and implications of our research. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-03-29 | Wanjing (Amy) Xu, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Modelling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited Data: An Application of Hierarchical Data ClusteringPresentation given to the Three Minute Thesis competition | Activity | 2022-09-06 | Wanjing (Amy) Xu |
| Modelling Variability in Biomass Feedstock Supplies with Limited High-Dimensional Data: An Application of Hierarchical Data ClusteringConcerns about the environmental impact of fossil fuels have led to increased interest in bioenergy production using agricultural crops and residues. BUT...using agricultural crops and residues is economically risky for investors because crop yields vary from location to location and from year to year. So, it is important to capture the crop yield variability.
PROBLEM
Capturing the crop yield variability using conventional statistical techniques when there is limited (high- dimensional) data leads to invalid results. | Activity | 2022-09-26 | Wanjing (Amy) Xu |
| Potential biorefinery sites based on agricultural residues in Alberta: A GIS-based approach with feedstock variabilityAlberta produces large quantities of agricultural crops and residues that could be used as feedstock for an emerging bioenergy industry. Key considerations in selecting potential biorefinery sites include: biomass yields and their variability (both spatial and temporal) and economic features (e.g. the plant’s road network accessibility). We build on the previous work and conduct a GIS-based analysis in Alberta at a high spatial resolution (i.e. 9.7km × 9.7km, the township level) with residues from four major crops (barley, canola, oats, and wheat). Previous studies have not investigated and incorporated yield variability over time into analyses beyond simple descriptive statistics.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | Yanan Zheng, Claire Doll, Jay Anthony Anderson, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Price Considerations for a Second-Generation Biofuel Industry in CanadaWheat straw could be an important feedstock for biofuel production in Canada. Prospects for a second-generation (i.e. cellulosic) biofuel industry are dependent on future prices. We use econometric time series models to explore how Canadian wheat prices are influenced by US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices from 2008 to 2018. Our results indicate: 1) wheat prices are sensitive to corn price changes and to deviations in a long-run relationship with corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices; 2) there is no evidence to suggest that markets are becoming more or less integrated over time, but transitory changes to market interdependencies exist; 3) transmissions of price volatility from one market to the others may only occur during critical events such as economic crises and US renewable fuels policy amendments. These results have implications for potential investors looking to establish ethanol operations in Canada, and policymakers wanting to understand challenges that ethanol investors face. | Activity | 2020-05-27 | Curtis John McKnight |
| Stochastic Assessment of Financial Viability of Biojet in North AmericaCurrently, 35% of the trade volume worldwide consists of the air travel and over 3.8 billion passengers are transported by air. But this is going to double within next 20 years (IATA, 2016). Global CO2 emissions from the aviation industry will rise to about 3.1 billion tons within 2050 (Mupondwa et al., 2022, Zhang et al., 2022).Alternative fuels such as synthetic jet fuels, electricity, hydrogen are constrained by the issues such as the lack of drop in capability, energy and emission density.
Need of drop in fuel that can be readily used without any significant modifications to the existing infrastructure and can be blended easily with the traditional fuels.
| Activity | 2022-09-26 | Muhammad Shah |
| The Potential of Low Grade Canola Feedstock for Biojet Refineries in Alberta: A GIS-Based AnalysisThis poster investigates prospects for a fuel-grade canola oil supply chain that prioritizes the use of non-No. 1 Canola as a biofuel feedstock. Using low-grade canola oil to produce biofuels can reduce feedstock costs and offers the opportunity to utilize existing petroleum infrastructure to transport and store canola oil, thereby reducing capital costs for biorefinery investments. We conduct a township-level GIS analysis to assess the availability of canola seed in Alberta and identify potential fuel-grade crushing sites based on the amount of annually accessible non-No. 1 Canola. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-09-20 | Wenbei Zhang, Qiu, F., Luckert, M., Jay Anthony Anderson |
| The Resilience of Biofuel Supply: Feedstock Availability, Financial Viability, and Market CompetitionFeng gave a talk on biofuels and agriculture, which reviewed the overall developments and constraints in biofuel production in the United States and Canada, and discussed opportunities for (western) Canada to develop a second generation biofuel industry based on agricultural residues and crops. University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-01-26 | Qiu, F. |
| Thought for Fuel: Planning Canada's Biofuel RoadmapAn online Zoom lecture hosted by Edmonton Public Libraries
The Energy Talks online speaker series is presented as a partnership between Edmonton Public Libraries and Future Energy Systems. The talks focus on multidisciplinary research that develops the energy technologies of today and the near future, integrates them into today’s infrastructure, and examines possible consequences for our society, economy, and environment. Energy Talks provides an opportunity for you to engage with researchers and learn more about their work.
DESCRIPTION
The rapid growth of the biofuel industry has brought economic and environmental benefits, but it has also caused serious social and other environmental problems, such as food vs. fuel and land-use changes. This presentation will first review first-generation (sourced from feed/food crops) biofuels’ overall development and constraints in the United States and Canada. Then, we will focus on the opportunities for Canada to develop a second-generation biofuel industry based on agricultural residues.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-04-27 | Qiu, F. |
| Your Energy Technology in the Real World: Methods for assessing the economic and system-wide impacts of energy transitionCommercialization is not the purpose of fundamental research, but many researchers seek to understand how their technologies can eventually fit into our everyday lives –– and what economic and systems hurdles might have to be overcome.
In this session, resource economists from T01-P02 and systems engineers from T13-P03 will explain their methods for examining the economic, geographic, and policy factors that could influence the adoption of new technologies, as well as the possible market and system impacts of those technologies –– intended or otherwise –– under different scenario assumptions. University of Alberta | Activity | 2018-06-12 | Luckert, M. |
| Impacts of ethanol supplies on the gasoline market Marty, in an interview with RadioNL reporter Paul James, discussed ethanol blending mandates and their impact on the gasoline market. University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-08-04 | Luckert, M. |
| Facility siting for a forest residue-based biorefinery considering variation of commercial timber harvestsFacility siting for a forest residue-based biorefinery considering variation of commercial timber harvests. MAg. Thesis. Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology. University of Alberta, Edmonton. 46p. | Publication | 2019-09-01 | Irene Onyango |
| Price Relationships and Feedstock Supply for a Second-Generation Ethanol Industry in CanadaThere is potential for a second-generation ethanol industry that uses wheat straw as a feedstock to emerge in Western Canada. This thesis presents three analyses that investigate regional and international factors that influence the future success of this industry. The first two analyses investigate price relationships between markets related to the existing first-generation ethanol industry: Canadian wheat, and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline. The price of Canadian wheat is included to represent a market that may be closely linked to the supply of wheat straw, which could be a second-generation ethanol feedstock. The first analysis investigates time-varying relationships among these markets. Results suggest that the Canadian wheat market is positively correlated with the US corn and ethanol markets, which may be a significant source of the downside and upside risk to ethanol producers in the future. The second analysis investigates volatility transmissions among the same markets. Results indicate that Canadian wheat prices are not affected by price shocks or volatility in other markets. Still, volatility in the Canadian wheat market may influence volatility in the ethanol market. The first two analyses also find that there is a long run equilibrium price relationship between all markets, but that changes to this relationship only affect short term price movements in the wheat and ethanol markets. The results suggest that both the feedstock supply and the marginal revenue of second-generation producers could be susceptible to price changes in related markets. The relationship between agricultural prices and the supply of wheat straw is investigated in the third analysis. A dynamic programming model is used to analyze optimal crop and straw management decisions of a farmer under varying price processes and soil conditions. In general, results suggest that wheat straw supply is responsive to price but also depends on the amount of soil organic matter and whether there is a high risk of canola disease. Because these factors are spatially heterogeneous over the province, the availability of straw will also be heterogenous. Overall, the results of this thesis provide essential information for the investment strategies of prospective ethanol producers and for policymakers who are interested in the emergence of renewable energy industries. | Publication | 2020-09-01 | Curtis John McKnight |
| Price Transmission in Petroleum Markets and Potential Feedstock Supply for Low-carbon Fuel Production: Implications for Emerging Energy SourcesLow-carbon fuels are receiving increasing attention from governments worldwide as sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels. But prospects for these emerging industries are uncertain due to several economic barriers. This thesis presents two studies, each investigating a key factor influencing the prospects of the biofuel industry: (1) price transmission in petroleum markets, and (2) potential bio-feedstock supplies. The first study uses nonlinear time series techniques to investigate price transmission from crude oil to jet fuel and diesel, two important transport fuels with distinctly different industrial characteristics. Our findings suggest that both jet fuel and diesel have long-run equilibrium relationships with oil prices, asymmetric price adjustments and nonlinear price responses to oil price shocks. We also find that jet fuel appears to be more vulnerable to fluctuating oil prices than diesel. These price relationships may provide incentives for fuel producers, especially jet fuel producers, to diversify input sources away from fossil fuels and towards bio-feedstock, thereby resulting in a shift towards increased biofuel production. The second study assesses the availability of non-No. 1 canola in Alberta, a feedstock that is less desirable for human consumption than No. 1 canola, but that could be desirable as a feedstock for biofuel production. Using a township-level GIS approach, we find different spatial distributions of available non-No. 1 and total canola oil, as well as different levels of spatial and temporal variations in non-No. 1 oil. We also model a fuel-grade canola oil supply chain that prioritizes the use of non-No. 1 canola, and then select crushing sites based on the amount of annually accessible non-No. 1 canola oil in Alberta. These findings will be useful to stakeholders, including fuel producers and users, farmers, rural communities, and policymakers. The results of this thesis contribute to a better understanding of the petroleum industries, and provide insights into emerging low-carbon fuel markets, with implications for investors and policymakers wishing to promote a low-carbon economy. | Publication | 2021-10-01 | Wenbei Zhang |
| Biofuel Opportunity: Assessing the potential of biofuels based on crop residues in CanadaFeng taught the 3rd session in a 6-session free online course on Climate Change and the Economics of World Food and Agriculture. The course was open to the public, and introduced participants to relevant economics concepts and approaches, illustrated the application of those concepts and approaches, and reviewed relevant empirical evidence from Canada and around the developing world. The course also addressed the dilemmas associated with technologies (eg biotechnologies, antibiotics, precision agriculture), new energy sources (eg solar, wind, biofuel), markets for new products (eg carbon, plant proteins, indexed insurance), and social protection against risks (eg floods, droughts, pests). University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-15 | Qiu, F. |
| Economic Aspects of BiojetPresented to the Alberta Biojet Initiative steering committee. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-09-30 | Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Economic Aspects of BiojetPresented to the Alberta Biojet Initiative steering committee. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-05-27 | Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Economics of Biojet Production: A Project ReportThis oral presentation was given to the Steering Committee of the Alberta Biojet Initiative. University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-04-29 | Luckert, M. |
| Investment Decisions and Policy Analysis of Biomass EnergyWe were contacted by ExxonMobil and asked to give an hour presentation highlighting our research program to 105 ExxonMobil scientists and engineers. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-02-01 | Qiu, F., Grant K Hauer, Jay Anthony Anderson |
| Supplies of Fuel-Grade Canola Oil for Low-Carbon Fuel Production: A GIS-Based Economic Analysis in AlbertaThis meeting was with representatives from Imperial Oil, which is one of our Knowledge Users. We presented our work on the supply of low grade canola for use as biofuel feedstock. Representatives from Imperial are interested in the results of this work given Imperial's proposal to build a large renewable diesel biorefinery just outside Edmonton. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-12-01 | Wenbei Zhang, Jay Anthony Anderson, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| The development of advanced biofuels: potential impacts on land use and ecosystemsFeng gave a presentation of our work to members of Alberta Land Institute to explore the potential for future collaboration. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-09 | Qiu, F. |
| The Potential of Low Grade Canola Feedstock for Biojet Refineries in Alberta: A GIS-Based AnalysisThis meeting was with representatives from Forge Hydrocarbons, which is one of our Knowledge Users. We presented our work on the supply of low grade canola for use as biojet feedstock. Representatives from Forge are interested in the results of this work. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-06-14 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F., Jay Anthony Anderson |
| The Potential of Low Grade Canola Feedstock for Biojet Refineries in Alberta: A GIS-Based AnalysisThis meeting was with representatives from Alberta Biojet Initiative, which is one of our Collaborators. We presented our work on the supply of low grade canola for use as biojet feedstock. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-04-27 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F., Jay Anthony Anderson |
| A spatiotemporal analysis of forestry residues for west-central AlbertaUncertainty in forest residue feedstock -- be it geographical distribution, quality, or production costs -- plays a major role in investment decisions in a forest residue-based supply chain. Spatiotemporal and quality variations can greatly increase the risk to investment decisions, and therefore a sound understanding of feedstock variation is critical in the development of a sustainable biofuel economy. In this study, we use a geographical information system to analyze historical forest harvesting patterns in west-central Alberta, which enables us to estimate the quantities and locations of residues produced over time. We then aggregate these quantities to show how variability in forest harvesting could impact a biorefinery dependent on such residues for feedstock. University of Alberta | Publication | 2020-10-01 | Armstrong, G., Jay Anthony Anderson, Alex Walter McPhee |
| A Wheat Straw Feedstock Supply Response Model for Ethanol Production in CanadaTo satisfy provincial and federal renewable fuels mandates, Canadian fuel blenders will need to import 1.4 billion litres of ethanol in 2019. Food security concerns regarding the use of cereal grains for fuel have triggered an increased interest in second-generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol that can be made from wheat straw. Ethanol processing facilities would require a consistent and reliable supply of biomass feedstock. Western Canada produces approximately 25 million tonnes of wheat straw per year, enough to make approximately 5.4 billion litres of ethanol. However, the availability of wheat straw is uncertain in several respects. Volumes within the economic transportation range of the refinery will vary with straw harvest levels over time. Moreover, depending on the prices that refineries are willing to offer, farmers may, or may not, agree to sell their straw, which contributes to soil quality. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to characterize and estimate farmer’s wheat straw supply in response to changes in wheat and wheat straw prices. We develop a dynamic programming model where a farmer decides how much wheat straw to sell each year to maximize profits over time. Our model considers the trade-off between the immediate payoffs a farmer may receive from selling wheat straw, and the long-term adverse affects that removing wheat straw from the soil surface may have on grain yields. Results from a theoretical deterministic model indicate that the steady-state values of extracted wheat straw and soil organic matter depend on relative wheat grain and wheat straw prices. Higher wheat grain prices will incentivise farmers to retain more wheat straw, to improve soil quality and future wheat grain yields. Conversely, higher wheat straw prices provide incentives to extract and sell more wheat straw. We extend the model into a stochastic framework where straw yields and prices vary over time. Straw yields, straw prices, and wheat prices are simulated using annual yield and price data for Alberta since 1978. Empirical results, from models under construction, will estimate how much wheat straw we can expect farmers to supply under specific wheat and what straw price conditions. | Publication | 2019-11-01 | Curtis John McKnight, Grant K Hauer |
| Asymmetric Price Transmission and Impulse Responses Between Crude Oil, Jet Fuel, and DieselPrice transmission from oil to fuel markets exposes underlying market structures and behaviors, such as competitiveness and market power, which are relevant for developing energy outlooks and policy. Many studies have investigated price interdependences in petroleum markets, particularly pass-through effects from oil to gasoline. However, research is scarce on impacts of oil markets on jet fuel (a fast-growing market) and diesel (the staple fuel of ground transportation). This absence of information is particularly noteworthy as technological change is progressing that could substitute bio-feedstock for oil to produce biojet and biodiesel. An understanding of pass-through price relationships between current energy inputs and outputs is crucial to developing industrial risk management strategies, and assisting the development of emerging energy industries. Using a nonlinear time series econometric approach, we examine price transmission from crude oil to jet fuel and diesel. Specifically, we investigate asymmetric price adjustments and the dynamic paths of price adjustments in response to crude oil price shocks. Key results include: (1) both jet fuel and diesel have long-run equilibrium relationships with oil prices; (2) price adjustments of jet fuel and diesel are asymmetric, in opposite directions due to distinct differences in industrial characteristics; (3) the responses of the two types of fuel prices to oil shocks show non-linear dynamic paths, with different amplitudes and decay periods. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the current fuel industries, and provide insights into emerging biofuel markets, with implications for businesses and policymakers. University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-11-15 | Wenbei Zhang, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Bioenergy feedstock supply from wheat straw: A farm level model incorporating trade‐offs in crop choices, disease risk, and soil fertilitySecond-generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol can be made from crop residues, but the availability of residues for ethanol production is uncertain. Farmers have the option to grow different crops (with and without residues could be used for biofuel production), and residues could be sold to alternative markets, such as livestock bedding, feed, and biorefineries, or left in the field to improve soils. Taking Canadian wheat straw supply as an example, we develop a dynamic programming model to investigate a farmer’s wheat straw supply decision in response to different wheat straw and grain prices. Our model considers crop choices between wheat and canola in the context of disease risk, and the trade-off between the immediate payoffs a farmer may receive from bailing and selling wheat straw, and the long-term adverse affects that removing wheat straw from the soil surface may have on wheat and canola yields. The results from this study illuminate conditions that could result in the supply of wheat straw to biorefineries, which impact the productivity of farmland. University of Alberta | Publication | 2024-02-06 | Curtis John McKnight, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Economic Opportunities and Challenges in Biojet Production: A Literature Review and AnalysisDespite the urgency of climate change action, air travel and associated greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase. The use of aviation biofuel, or biojet, has emerged as a potential way for the sector to pursue emissions targets. However, global uptake of biojet has remained negligible. Numerous sources have speculated on economic reasons for biojet’s lack of commercial success, but there have been few reviews across experts that have identified key causes. Our approach is to compile the views of experts through a comprehensive literature review (covering over 200 sources between 2003 and 2020) that explores the opportunities and challenges (OACs) for the emergence of a biojet industry through an economic lens. We categorize OACs into identified factors (e.g. high costs of production) and track the number of times each factor is mentioned. We use these counts to rank OAC factors and note how these factors are associated with concepts of demand, supply and investments in biojet. We also examine how numbers of citations for key opportunities and challenges have changed over time. The highest ranked opportunities are associated with demand-side factors (e.g. increasing demand for reduced emissions), while the highest ranked challenges are associated with supply-side factors (e.g. high costs of production). Policy considerations, which could affect demand and/or supply, are also highly ranked, but like many factors, are viewed as both opportunities and challenges. Overall, the literature tends to be optimistic towards future demand, but pessimistic towards future supply, with the bottom line indicating few prospects for current investments in biojet. Given the ongoing confidence in demand for biojet, this situation could potentially be changed with future investments in research to reduce costs and uncertainty, along with clarifications of policies that could incentivize biojet production. University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-03-01 | Meghan Lim, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Facility siting for a forest residue-based biorefinery considering variation of commercial timber harvestsIn this study, we evaluate variability in commercial timber harvest and how it may impact on the decisions on where to locate a forestry residue based biofuel facility. We consider collocating the biofuel facility either near a pulpmill or sawmill depending on the facility with a relatively stable supply of commercial timber. Our case study is the province of Alberta, Canada. We find that pulpwood harvests have lower variation than logs harvest therefore we select pulpmill locations as potential biofuel facility sites. We evaluate available residue and annual average delivery cost per odt based on 300 km haul radius from the potential locations, and rank the locations starting from the least cost per odt. We find that on average, there are about 2.2 million odt per year that can be generated from commercial harvesting of timber in Alberta. Hinton has the least cost per odt ($86.20) followed by Whitecourt ($86.30). Each has a capacity of 800,000 and one million odt per year respectively. Peace River and Boyle rank last with $91.57 and $93.23 per odt respectively even though Peace River has the highest odt (1.4 million) per year at this haul radius. We also observe that variability in commercial timber harvesting can influence the cost of delivering residue by up to 7%, but does not influence the ranking of the potential locations. Therefore, variability of available residue should be a key factor to consider when making decisions regarding biorefinery facility siting, making it important that inter year variability in available residue be factored in decision making. University of Alberta | Publication | 2020-01-02 | Irene Onyango, Jay Anthony Anderson, Luckert, M., Armstrong, G., Qiu, F. |
| Growing hybrid poplar in western Canada for use as a biofuel feedstock: A financial analysis of coppice and single-stem managementCellulosic biorefineries require a stable supply of low-cost feedstock. In this paper we conduct a financial analysis of hybrid poplar as a purpose grown biofuel feedstock. We analyzed growth rates and costs for producing hybrid poplar in the Peace River region of western Canada – an area previously identified as a preferred location for a large biorefinery. We estimated financial returns for two hybrid poplar management systems: (i) a single-stem system that involves the planting and harvesting of individual trees according to optimal economic rotations of 20–26 years, and (ii) a coppice (multi-stem) system that involves multiple harvests of new shoots that sprout from stumps following harvest every 3–4 years. Results suggest that the coppice system is financially inferior (with estimated costs of 202 $ Mg−1) to the single-stem system (with estimated costs of 125 $ Mg−1), largely due to the cost of establishing the high density coppice plantations. But even the single-stem production system does not appear to be financially feasible given the current environment of high land prices and low biomass prices. In contrast to estimated costs of growing poplar, current biomass prices for agriculture and forestry residues are approximately 50 $ Mg−1. However, even though purpose grown energy crops are more expensive than residues, they could be valuable in supplementing a biorefinery's feedstock supply during years when residue yields are low. If governments in Canada wish to encourage renewable energy from cellulosic feedstock, then current economic conditions suggest that subsidies aimed at biomass production are likely required. University of Alberta | Publication | 2018-04-16 | "Ashan Shooshtarian", Jay Anthony Anderson, Armstrong, G., Luckert, M. |
| Potential biorefinery sites based on agricultural residues in Alberta: A GIS-based approach with feedstock variabilityPrevious studies have optimized biorefinery sites using Geographical Information System (GIS)-based and/or math programming methods. However, few studies have considered feedstock variability over time. Agricultural yields in Alberta vary greatly from year-to-year because of weather conditions, thereby influencing residue availability for potential biorefineries. In this study we use a GIS-based method to integrate considerations of agricultural residue variability and spatially optimize biorefinery sites. We model variability using 40 years of spatial crop yield data from Alberta. Our results suggest that agricultural residue yields in northern regions of Alberta are likely too variable to support a biorefinery. However, there appear to be five potential sites in central and southern regions, with only one year out of 40 when two of the sites would have been unable to supply a biorefinery with a minimum agricultural residue capacity of 635,000 tonnes per year. University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-01-09 | Yanan Zheng, Claire Doll, Qiu, F., Jay Anthony Anderson, Grant K Hauer, Luckert, M. |
| Potential Supplies of Fuel‐Grade Canola Oil for Low‐Carbon Fuel Production in Alberta, Canada: GIS Analysis Using an Improved Service‐Area ApproachOur study investigates prospects for a fuel-grade canola oil supply chain that prioritizes the use of non-No. 1 Canola as a biofuel feedstock. Using low-grade canola oil to produce biofuels can reduce feedstock costs and offer the opportunity to utilize existing petroleum infrastructure to transport and store canola oil, thereby reducing capital costs for biorefinery invest- ments. We conducted a township-level GIS analysis to assess the availability of canola seed in Alberta and identify potential fuel-grade crushing sites based on the amount of annually accessible non-No. 1 Canola. Using an improved service-area approach, we identify three potential sites for fuel-grade crushers, all of which had sufficient seed to produce, on average, over 65 thousand tonnes of oil per year (from 2016 to 2019). Northwestern Alberta appears to be especially suitable for a fuel-grade canola crushing plant, since it has the highest average amounts of non-No. 1 seed, and there are no existing food- grade crushers to compete with. Results further show that spatial and temporal variation in canola harvests impacts how much non-No.1 seed is available and could therefore influence investment decisions on where to locate fuel-grade canola crushing plants. New fuel-grade crushing plants could also stimulate regional development and boost incomes for local canola producers. Our analysis is relevant to policy and business decisions related to fuel-grade canola oil supply chain investments. University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-12-01 | Wenbei Zhang, Qiu, F., Luckert, M., Jay Anthony Anderson, Alex Walter McPhee |
| Prices for a second‐generation biofuel industry in Canada: Market linkages between Canadian wheat and US energy and agricultural commoditiesThe production of biofuels is limited in Canada, but the availability of wheat straw as a second‐generation (i.e., cellulosic) feedstock is an exciting prospect for the future development of a biofuel industry. The future success of such a biofuel industry will depend on future ethanol prices and prices related to wheat straw. These prices are likely to be influenced by markets related to the existing first‐generation ethanol industry in the United States. Therefore, the motivation of this paper is to investigate relationships between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We employ a DCC‐MGARCH enhanced VEC model to investigate time‐varying relationships among these markets. Results indicate that there are positive relationships between wheat and corn, ethanol and corn, and wheat and ethanol markets. Our results add to a better understanding of the level of integration between select Canadian agricultural markets and US energy markets. More specifically, the price relationships identified highlight several sources of price risk that may affect the financial success of commercially producing second‐generation ethanol from wheat straw in Canada. This information will be of particular interest to prospective industry investors and policymakers. University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-06-20 | Curtis John McKnight, Qiu, F., Luckert, M., Grant K Hauer |
| Prospects for second-generation ethanol in CanadaCanadian ethanol production is currently derived from grain. Ethanol is criticized for displacing food production and not significantly reducing greenhouse gases. Second-generation ethanol from lignocellulosic feedstocks, such as fast-growing trees, are promoted as being more effective at reducing greenhouse gases without compromising food supplies. However, a second-generation ethanol industry may not be cost-effective with regard to greenhouse gas reduction. This study examines obstacles to a commercial second-generation ethanol industry, the potential for success, and the policy implications of promoting Canadian second-generation ethanol production. University of Alberta | Publication | 2018-09-03 | "Hawley Campell", "James Rude", Luckert, M., "Farzad Taheripour" |
| The price of plant-based air travel: A review of biojet financial analyses University of Alberta | Publication | 2020-04-15 | Meghan Lim, Luckert, M., Qiu, F. |
| Volatility Transmission Effects Between Canadian Wheat and US Energy and Agricultural CommoditiesSecond generation (i.e. cellulosic) ethanol can be made from wheat straw. Investment in biorefineries that use wheat straw as a feedstock may be dependent on the relationships between wheat, ethanol, and related market prices. We use a BEKK-MGARCH enhanced VEC model to identify the relationships between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices from 2008 to 2018. Firstly, we estimate short-term price adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships between each price series. Secondly, we investigate the extent to which price return volatility in one market is transferred to other markets. Results suggest that: 1) ethanol and wheat prices are sensitive to short run price changes in corn markets and to changes to the long-run relationship between all four prices; and 2) the direction and magnitude of volatility spillovers between each market price are affected by historical periods of high price return volatility. Our results have important implications to biofuel producers considering new investments, as well as to policy makers interested in attracting such investments. Specifically, second-generation biofuel producers should consider risk management strategies that minimize their exposure to related markets, especially during international economic events. University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-01-03 | Curtis John McKnight, Qiu, F., Luckert, M., Grant K Hauer |
| Bioenergy Feedstock Supply from Wheat Straw: A Farm Level Model | Energy In A FlashCellulosic ethanol can be made from wheat straw, but the availability of wheat straw for ethanol production in Canada is uncertain. An economic model is used to investigate a farmer’s wheat straw supply decision in response to different wheat straw prices. The results discussed in this video illuminate conditions that could result in the supply of wheat straw to biorefineries, which impact the productivity of farmland. | Publication | 2021-04-09 | Curtis John McKnight |
| Getting Biojet Off The GroundFuture Energy Systems Bite Sized Research
Can we fly without fossil fuels? Biofuels are produced from living plant matter, with biojet a specific kind used for flying. Explore the reasons for biojet production and the challenges it faces with undergraduate student, Meghan Lim.
Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBGWBApbX4&feature=youtu.be
| Publication | 2020-06-01 | Meghan Lim |
