| Water-use implications of low-carbon pathways in the oil sands. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-09-20 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Assessing present and future water flows in Canada with a focus on the energy supply sectorsAbstract accepted for presentation at CWRA 2020, June 15-18, 2020, Winnipeg, Canada. (conference cancelled due to COVID-19). University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-06-15 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Development of long-term forecasting model to assess current and future water flows in Canada for energy supply sectors. | Activity | 2021-05-31 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis |
| Evaluation of using Alberta hydrogen for clean-firm power in decarbonized power gridsWe evaluated the role that hydrogen can play in achieving a decarbonized power grid. Seventy-two scenarios were explored, and we assessed the greenhouse gas reduction potential of these scenarios, as well as their costs. Our research demonstrates that hydrogen for clean, firm power can effectively provide clean electricity and reduce emissions. However, the source of hydrogen is critical to achieving GHG reductions in the province. We also found that using hydrogen for clean, firm power can create economic benefits, such as investment in infrastructure and jobs. However, this could lead to unwanted increases in electricity prices. Blue hydrogen-based power is not economical in a grid-like we have today, but it can be a competitive option in a nearly decarbonized grid, but only if fueled by ATR with CCS. Finally, hydrogen in the power sector is just one option to reduce emissions. Out of the options assessed in our group, other options are available at lower costs that provide deeper emission cuts, and these should be compared before making decisions. University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-04-25 | Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Long-term integrated assessment of water and GHG impacts of a transition to low-carbon unconventional oil extraction.Long-term integrated assessment of water and GHG impacts of a transition to low-carbon unconventional oil extraction. NSERC/Cenovus/Alberta Innovates Associate Industrial Research Chair in Energy and Environmental Systems Engineering TAC Meeting University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-11-30 | Gustavo Moraes Coraca, Kumar, A., Matthew Davis |
| Technology-based Options for Achieving Net-zero GHG Emissions in CanadaWe have developed a framework for accounting and assessing technology-specific measures toward achieving net-zero GHG emissions within a multi-regional multi-sectoral economy based on a bottom-up energy model featuring high technological detail. This framework allows for system-wide effects and costs to be assessed incrementally and can facilitate regional decarbonization policy development. This framework indicates the gaps between currently available technologies and GHG emissions goals; other approaches may blur the line between current and aspirational technologies.
We used this framework to perform a case study for Canada, where we established a portfolio of 184 measures based on a thorough review, and, after categorizing them according to type and technological readiness, evaluated their economic and environmental performance. We compared the effects of these measures to static reference and business-as-usual scenarios reflective of current policy. Together, the assessed measures represent an extensive portfolio of commercially available opportunities for energy efficiency improvement, fuel-switching, and carbon capture and storage. The results show the magnitude of the gaps between national GHG reduction ambitions and currently available solutions and highlight the need for more transparent and credible approaches to economy-wide decarbonization assessment.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-06-03 | Luke Sperry, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Water-use implications of low carbon pathways in the oil and gas sectorNov 3-6, 2019. [Conference Presentation] University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-11-04 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Water-use implications of low carbon pathways in the oil and gas sector University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-02-26 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Water-use implications of low-carbon pathways in the oil and gas sector University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-09 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| A Long-Term Integrated Assessment of a Transition to a Low-Carbon Bitumen Extraction and Hydrogen Production and Utilization PathwaysThe growing demand for energy and the need for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to increased interest from government, industry, and academia in the development of new low-carbon technologies for bitumen extraction and hydrogen production. In situ bitumen is a major contributor to Canada's economy. Hydrogen has the potential to play a critical role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. The production of these two important energy sources comes with significant environmental impacts related to GHG emissions and water consumption. While low-carbon technologies offer a promising solution to mitigate carbon emissions, there is a critical knowledge gap regarding their potential impacts on water. This research aims to investigate the environmental footprints related to water consumption, GHG emissions, and associated cost impacts with the adoption of new low-carbon technologies for bitumen extraction and hydrogen production.
Bitumen production from the Canadian oil sands made up 5.3% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Canada exports 76% of the crude oil produced, and 97% of this is recovered in the oil sands. In the next 25 years, bitumen production is expected to increase by 2.5 million cubic meters per day because of expansions of in situ bitumen recovery projects. The oil sands sector is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), accounting for 11.3% of Canada’s GHG emissions; therefore, advancing low-carbon oil sands extraction technologies is critical. While many strategies to mitigate GHG emissions from the oil sands sector have been proposed, there are few assessments of associated water-use impacts. To fill this knowledge gap, this research builds on a novel data-intensive and technology-specific model of the in situ bitumen extraction sector in Canada developed to determine the long-term water and GHG footprints of the penetration of emerging low-carbon oil sands recovery technologies. The market penetration of seven novel low-carbon and three conventional in situ bitumen extraction techniques through four different technology mix scenarios between 2020 and 2050 were considered. The results show maximum water savings and GHG abatement potential in 2050 of 15% and 39%, respectively, at a -$429/m3 water savings cost and a -$134/tCO2e GHG abatement cost at a scenario of high carbon tax. Total water consumption and GHG emissions are projected to reach 40 million cubic meters and 37 million tonnes in 2050 under the scenario that best reduces water use and emissions. Although freshwater use from in situ recovery is low – 0.05% of the Athabasca River flow – projected annual emissions from the oil sands industry are significant, thus further efforts are needed to meet Canada’s net-zero emissions target by 2050.
Hydrogen-based greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies can have multi-sector benefits and are considered necessary to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Assessments of hydrogen scale-up have not included long-term implications for water resources. This work aims to fill this knowledge gap through a long-term integrated assessment of the water consumption, GHG emissions, and costs of conventional and low-carbon hydrogen scenarios to the year 2050. 120 long-term scenarios were developed for the large-scale deployment of low-carbon hydrogen in a prospective hydrogen-intensive economy (Alberta, Canada) and the economic impacts in terms of marginal abatement costs were determined. This study considered 15 different natural gas- and electrolysis-based hydrogen production technologies. The results obtained project a cumulative mitigation of 9 to 162 million tonnes of carbon emissions between 2026 and 2050 through the implementation of low-carbon hydrogen production scenarios compared to the business-as-usual scenario. However, cumulative water consumption increases considerably with the large-scale deployment of low-carbon hydrogen, reaching 8 to 3,815 million cubic meters. The adoption of green hydrogen technologies increases water consumption significantly. Depending on the jurisdiction of analysis and its water bodies, this increase may or may not be a long-term issue. Alberta’s available water resources are sufficient to provide water to drive low-carbon hydrogen deployment while also providing water for other economic and social activities. Low-carbon hydrogen scenarios start becoming cost-effective as the carbon price rises to $170/tCO2e. The long-term water consumption projections add valuable information to the existing body of literature by providing details on the potential impacts on water resources associated with the implementation of low-carbon hydrogen.
| Publication | 2023-06-30 | Gustavo Moraes Coraca |
| Integrated assessment of water use and greenhouse gas footprints of Canada’s electricity generation and oil and gas sectors | Publication | 2020-01-20 | Ankit Gupta |
| Planning for net-zero GHG emissions by 2050: Moving from technical feasibility assessments to actionable analysisResearchers with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that the net flux of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must reach zero by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C within this century. This target requires that all GHG emissions resulting from human activity are offset by equal levels of natural or technological carbon uptake, meaning that action towards net-zero GHG emissions may involve measures aiming to minimize GHG sources or maximize GHG sinks. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may only be possible through the rapid deployment of new technologies at an unprecedented rate, requiring policymakers to develop creative policy instruments to facilitate collaborative action across sector boundaries. This research describes a novel approach to planning for and assessing action towards net-zero GHG emissions based on bottom-up, accounting-based energy modelling techniques.
The first part of this research develops a framework for assessing the contribution potential of energy-efficiency measures towards economy-wide net-zero emission targets. The framework uses a bottom-up energy model spanning the agriculture, cement, chemicals, commercial and institutional, iron and steel, oil extraction, petroleum refining, and residential sectors, together accounting for over 75% of annual energy demand in the case study region of Alberta, Canada. 81 energy-efficiency improvements were identified for these sectors which, by 2050, may mitigate 8% of regional annual GHG emissions relative to a baseline in which shares and efficiencies of existing technologies are held constant. Considering the interaction effects between simultaneously applied measures, measures representing 80% of the identified cumulative mitigation potential may be implemented at negative cost. The assessed energy-efficiency measures represent cost-effective and readily deployable GHG mitigation strategies for most major economic sectors, but together only account for a small fraction of the GHG mitigation required for complete energy system decarbonization in the assessed region. This framework offers value to policymakers developing actionable policy and milestone targets towards long-term emissions-reduction goals.
This framework was expanded to assess technology-specific measures toward achieving net-zero GHG emissions within a multi-regional multi-sectoral economy, where the effects, costs, and benefits of various GHG mitigation measures could be assessed incrementally. A portfolio of 184 measures was developed. Measures were categorized according to practical type and technological readiness and their maximum technical GHG mitigation potential was evaluated. These measures are applicable in the cement, chemicals, commercial and institutional, iron and steel, oil sands, petroleum refining, pulp and paper, residential, and transportation sectors. The effects of these measures were compared to a static reference scenario and a business-as-usual scenario reflecting current policy. Together, the assessed measures represent an extensive portfolio of commercially available opportunities for energy efficiency improvement, fuel switching, and carbon capture and storage. Under current policy, these measures may mitigate 33% of baseline GHG emissions by 2050 and represent significant economic cost savings. If implemented to their maximum extent, they may reduce baseline GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 at additional economic costs. The results indicate that there is a clear gap between national GHG reduction ambitions and available solutions and highlight the need for more transparent and specific energy systems models for decarbonization assessment.
This research ultimately highlights the gap between currently available GHG reduction measures and complete decarbonization; achieving net-zero GHG emissions will only be possible through a complete transformation of entire energy systems and economies. Existing assessment frameworks that represent net-zero as a system-wide constraint and model hypothetical technologies alongside proven measures often fail to communicate the magnitude of change implied by this target.
| Publication | 2023-06-30 | Luke Sperry |
| Scenario-Based Assessment and Projection of Water Use for the Canadian Oil and Gas Sector and Several Low-carbon Technologies Available to the Oil SandsAbstract
The Canadian oil and gas sector is a significant contributor to Canada’s economy, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and water use. Society is increasingly focused on GHG emissions, and it is broadly recognized that GHG reductions in the oil and gas sector have an important role in Canada’s meeting its national targets. The oil and gas sector has set goals to reduce its GHG emissions by reducing the emissions intensity of its products. As the sector as a whole and the oil sands in particular are regionally significant water users, changes in sectoral activity or technological makeup due to these GHG emissions reduction options may have significant impacts on local water resources. There has been limited focus on the assessment of integrated GHG and water footprints of oil sands sector. This research is aimed at addressing these gaps.
This thesis describes the bottom-up modelling of long-term water use of the oil and gas sector under several production scenarios and long-term water-use impacts of several GHG-reducing technologies in the oil sands in order to develop integrated cost-GHG-water use impacts for those technologies. The Canadian Water Evaluation and Planning Model (WEAP-Canada) was expanded and used to project the long-term water use of six oil and gas subsectors in nine provinces. Nineteen rivers were considered, and water use was projected on an annual basis. The added features of the model include variable water-use intensities for several subsectors over the historic period, updated production scenarios, and additional baseline water-use data. The model outputs were validated using historic water-use data from 2005 to 2017, and the water-use projections are presented for 2020 to 2050.
Four water-use projection scenarios were established based on production projections from the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) and represent their reference case, the evolving climate policies scenario, a low oil and gas price scenario, and a high oil and gas price scenario. The reference scenario water projection showed an increase from the sector’s national annual water consumption of 317 million cubic metres (MCM) in 2020 to 409 MCM (+29%) by 2050. The subsectors with the largest contribution to this increase are natural gas and surface bitumen mining, which over this period increased their consumption by 30 MCM (+104%) and 18 MCM (+11%), respectively. The low and high price scenarios had a 2050 sectoral consumption of 278 MCM and 526 MCM, representing increases from the 2020 total of -12% and +65%, respectively, and differences from the reference case 2050 total of -32% and +29%, respectively. A fifth water projection scenario was established based on assumed changes in the future water-use intensity of individual oil and gas subsectors.
WEAP-Canada was then integrated with the previously developed Canadian Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP-Canada) model to allow the water-use impacts of several oil sands low-carbon technologies to be projected. Nine low-carbon technologies were considered, and their previously developed adoption rates across three carbon price scenarios were used alongside newly introduced water-use intensity parameters to estimate each technology’s annual water use under each carbon price. The cumulative 2020-2050 marginal water consumption by pathway ranged from +753 MCM (increased consumption) in the hydropower-electrolysis pathway, to +4 MCM in the biomass gasification pathway, to -182 MCM (decreased consumption) in the SAGD cogeneration pathway. An indicator representing the amount of water consumed to achieve GHG emission abatement for each pathway showed that between +188 m3/tCO2e (hydropower-electrolysis, increased consumption), +1.04 m3/tCO2e (biomass gasification), and -2.49 m3/tCO2e (SAGD cogeneration, decreased consumption) is required. The effects of several carbon price points between $0/tCO2e and $50/tCO2e were also quantified.
These results provide clarity on how technology and production outlook changes occurring in the sector will affect the less addressed but important measure of water use. This information ultimately provides a range of watershed-resolution annual water use information for the sector and quantified relationships among several environmental impacts of low-carbon technology options for industry leaders and policymakers. | Publication | 2023-02-23 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick |
| The Development of a Technology-Explicit Bottom-Up Integrated Multi-Regional Energy Model of CanadaThe Development of a Technology-Explicit Bottom-Up Integrated Multi-Regional Energy Model of Canada, MSc Thesis, University of Alberta, Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2017. | Publication | 2017-09-14 | Matthew Davis |
| Oil’s cost on water: bottom up modelling of Canada’s oil and gas sector water use and the effect of commodity price University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, Ankit Gupta, Kumar, A. |
| An integrated assessment framework for the decarbonization of the electricity generation sector University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-04-15 | Ankit Gupta, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation options for the iron, gold, and potash mining sectorsKatta AK, Davis M, Kumar A. Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation options for the iron, gold, and potash mining sectors, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019 (in press). University of Alberta | Publication | 2019-10-08 | Anil-Kumar Katta, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Analysis of Canada’s water use: Tracing water flow from source to end useThis study provides estimates for disaggregated water use by regional subsectors and uses Sankey diagrams to depict the water flow from the intake to consumption and discharge. The study uses a bottom-up method in the oil and gas and hydropower sectors and top-down methods in the residential, commercial and institutional, manufacturing, mining, agricultural, and power sectors. Surface and groundwater are considered separately. Water use in the year 2017 was analyzed for British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, the Atlantic Provinces, and the Territories. Water-use intensities were also calculated by region and sector. A total of 40 billion m3 of water use is traced from source to either discharge or consumption. New disaggregated data is developed provincially and by sector for oil and gas, mining, and power generation. Water use in the oil and gas sector was disaggregated into 5 subsectors, with oil sands surface mining in Alberta as the largest consumer with 138 million m3 of water consumed. Hydropower was estimated to consume the most water out of all sectors, with 3393 million m3 of water consumed. Alberta was also found to have the largest consumptive water use per capita. University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-11-09 | "Nikhil Agrawal", Thomas Edward Lamont Patrick, Matthew Davis, "Ahiduzzaman M", Kumar, A. |
| Development of disaggregated energy use and greenhouse gas emission footprints in Canada's iron, gold, and potash mining sectorsDevelopment of disaggregated energy use and greenhouse gas emission footprints in Canada's iron, gold, and potash mining sectors, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2020, 152: 104485. University of Alberta | Publication | 2019-10-05 | Anil-Kumar Katta, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| How to model a complex national energy system? Developing an integrated energy systems framework for long-term energy and emissions analysis University of Alberta | Publication | 2019-04-23 | Matthew Davis, "Md. Ahiduzzaman", Kumar, A. |
| The development of a framework to assess long-term water supply and demand projections for integrated assessment of environment impacts for the energy sector University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-05-01 | "Anum Dar", "Thomas Patrick", Matthew Davis, Mohammed A H Mondal, Kumar, A. |
| Integrated assessment of environmental footprints for energy scenarios. Second annual progress report submitted to Future Energy Systems University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-05-03 | Kumar, A. |
