| A framework for trade through integration of low-carbon hydrogen into multi-regional natural gas systems The objective of this research is to develop a comprehensive framework for integrating low-carbon hydrogen into multi-regional natural gas energy systems through hydrogen-natural gas blending. This study aims to reduce the carbon intensity of energy use across residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, facilitating the transition towards a net-zero emissions economy. Specifically, the framework will identify hydrogen production, transmission, and trade opportunities between regions, applying a 20% hydrogen blending strategy into existing natural gas infrastructure. Additionally, this study includes analyzing the greenhouse gas reduction potential and economic impacts of blending low-carbon hydrogen. Three distinct low-carbon hydrogen trade regimes were developed to analyze hydrogen production and transmission across Canadian provinces. A set of 528 long-term scenarios were modeled for large-scale integration of low-carbon hydrogen into Canada's natural gas energy systems, addressing hydrogen supply across all sectors. These scenarios were considered varying hydrogen production technologies, trade regimes, and carbon policies across regions and sectors analyzed through a robust bottom-up systems approach. The impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy system costs were calculated and compared for all the scenarios, providing critical insights into the potential for decarbonization and economic implications. This study develops a multi-regional framework and identifies ATR-CCS as cost-effective for hydrogen production in natural gas-rich regions like Alberta and British Columbia, while grid electrolysis is suited to areas with low-emission electricity, such as British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-04-22 | Shibani, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| A scenario-based approach to understanding the technical and economic potential of decarbonizing the cement sectorGreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement production have risen and have continued to rise globally, and in Canada. In this study, using a bottom-up accounting and systems-based model we evaluate the GHG emissions mitigation potential and the abatement cost of technologies spanning several decarbonization categories from 2020 to 2050. We also establish multiple carbon-neutral scenarios for the cement sector, based on a variety of criteria, including maximum emissions reduction and low abatement cost technologies. Our results demonstrate that carbon-neutral cement production is possible with abatement costs ranging from -17 to -34 CAD/t CO2e based on Canada’s current carbon price schedule. However, we observed a trade-off between economic attractiveness and total GHG mitigation potential. The impact of changing carbon prices on abatement costs was also evaluated nationally and provincially, with breakeven carbon prices ranging from less than 50 CAD/t CO2e to 140 CAD/t CO2e by 2030. We found that up to 96% of annual GHG emissions can be mitigated through technological means, but the impacts of carbonation, or a similar offset must be considered to achieve neutrality. Finally, carbon capture was found to play a significant role in mitigating GHG emissions across all scenarios. University of Alberta | Activity | 2024-05-30 | Matthew Davis, "Garret Clark", Kumar, A. |
| A strategy assessment to decarbonize road transport in AlbertaThe objective of this work is to contribute to finding answers to key questions for the decarbonization of road transport in Alberta. These questions are: 1) What is the GHG mitigation potential of hydrogen vehicles? 2) What’s the market share of hydrogen vehicles in different sectors? 3) What is the impact of policies like carbon price, zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) sales mandate, and incentivization? Our study found that the ZEV sales mandate is the most effective way of transitioning the road transportation sector to ZEVs. The market shares of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were found to be highest in 2050. Carbon price and incentivization do not have a significant effect on the cost or market share of ZEVs and in decreasing energy demand and GHG emissions. The emission factors of H2-FCEV ATR with 91% carbon capture are lowest at lower carbon prices. The carbon price scenarios have the most significant impact of all the scenarios on social costs. University of Alberta | Activity | 2023-04-26 | Minza Haider, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Assessment of environmental and energy footprints of utility-scale flywheel energy storage systems. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-11-29 | "Rahman Mustafizur", Eskinder Gemechu, Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| Assessments of technologies developed under future energy systems University of Alberta | Activity | 2018-10-03 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A., Evan G R Davies |
| Can hydrogen and ammonia production through small modular reactor-powered electrolysis be cost-competitive against fossil fuel-based hydrogen in Canada?This research focuses on the cost-effectiveness of small modular nuclear reactor power plants (SMNRPP)-powered electrolysis for H2 and ammonia production and their competitiveness with alternative options to justify the long-term adoption potential. To achieve this objective, we developed a unique framework that performs a cost-effectiveness analysis of hydrogen production from a price-following SMNRPP paired with proton exchange membrane electrolyzers using economic dispatch optimization, levelized cost modelling, and uncertainty-sensitivity analysis techniques.
The study findings showed that permitting the SMNRPPs to participate simultaneously in the electricity system and gaseous hydrogen market significantly decreases hydrogen supply costs from the SMNRPP-electrolysis system such that the pathway emerges as the cheapest option in Canada in less than 13 years of consistent deployment. The calibration of the framework for fossil fuel-rich Alberta also revealed that an ammonia supply cost as low as $500/tNH3 by 2050 is realizable if electricity system price arbitrage by the SMNRPP is accompanied by conditional grid purchases through a novel annual matching strategy, making the electrolytic ammonia cost-competitive with carbon capture-integrated natural gas-based ammonia production in the future. The study outcomes are critical for decision-makers.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-05-30 | Ayodeji Oluwalonimi Okunlola, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Can hydrogen production through small modular reactor-powered electrolysis be cost competitive against conventional hydrogen? This work analyzed the supply cost of electrolytic hydrogen production from SMNRPPs to be competitive with alternative low-cost hydrogen production options to justify the long-term adoption potential. We also expanded the research to determine how long it will take for the SMNRPP-electrolysis process to become the lowest-cost hydrogen production pathway when competing with natural gas-based hydrogen production options in Canada.
To tackle the mentioned objectives, we developed a unique framework based on economic dispatch optimization, levelized cost modelling, and uncertainty analysis to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of hydrogen production from a price-following SMNRPP paired with proton exchange membrane electrolyzers.
The findings from the study showed that hydrogen supply from the price-following SMNPP-electrolysis system can compete with carbon capture integrated steam methane reforming and autothermal reforming of natural gas predetermines the selling price of hydrogen if electricity price arbitrage in the hydrogen market and electricity system are prioritized over in the long term. Furthermore, allowing small modular nuclear power plants to participate simultaneously in the electricity system and gaseous hydrogen production market can significantly decrease hydrogen production costs from the SMNRPP-electrolysis system such that the pathway emerges as the cheapest option in Canada in less than 13 years of consistent deployment. University of Alberta | Activity | 2024-04-23 | Ayodeji Oluwalonimi Okunlola, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Canada-Switzerland Seminar on HydrogenInvited speaker to the 5 min Pitch session of the seminar University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-05-23 | Kumar, A. |
| Circular economy of plastic waste via chemical recycling routes: A pathway towards sustainability, resource optimization and waste utilizationThis process addresses two major challenges in waste management by reducing emissions linked to traditional plastic production and disposal and minimizing landfill contributions. Waste-to-chemicals (WtC) aligns with the principles of the circular economy by transforming nonrecyclable mixed plastics into high-demand products like HDPE. This process helps meet the rising need for sustainable resources, offering a viable pathway for industries aiming to reduce their carbon footprint. The study emphasizes the efficiency and environmental sustainability of WtC for plastic manufacturing, supporting a shift toward a circular plastics economy where materials are continuously repurposed. This innovative approach to plastic waste management exemplifies the potential for a closed-loop system, ultimately advancing sustainable practices in the plastic industry.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-06-10 | "Shaivya Anand", Kumar, A. |
| Co-processing hydrothermal liquefaction bio-oil with vacuum gas oil (VGO) in a conventional hydroprocessing unit for transportation fuelsCo-processing bio-oils with petroleum intermediates enables efficient transportation fuel production by integrating bio-oil upgrading into conventional refineries. Use of existing refineries reduces costs, enables flexible blending, and boosts renewable carbon for sustainable fuel production. Although co-processing of hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) bio-oils and vacuum gas oils (VGO) have been studied in the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units, a key research gap exits in developing a comprehensive techno-economic assessment for the hydroprocessing pathway. In this study, a detailed process simulation model was developed to assess the co-processing of 7.5 vol% hydrodeoxygenated hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) bio-oil with VGO for transportation fuel production through hydrocracking. The results show that bio-oil blend attained 60.3% conversion for the 343oC+ fraction when processed at elevated reactor temperature as compared to the VGO feed. The range of light end for both the feed is 2.8 − 3.0 wt%; however, the VGO feed yields 3.9 wt% more naphtha but 2.5 wt% less diesel compared to the biocrude blend. Based on the process model, a comprehensive economic model was developed to analyze the increase in the capital cost for establishing the biorefinery infrastructure, and the minimum breakeven selling price (MBSP) of diesel from co-processing compared with the conventional MBSP of $70.56 per bbl. Sensitivity analysis showed that diesel price is highly sensitive to the fuel yields, biomass and VGO feed costs, capital costs, and hydrogen cost. This analysis provides baseline data on the economic feasibility and implications of integrating bio-oil co-processing into the petroleum industry. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-07-14 | "Arun Sreekumar", Kumar, A. |
| Comparative life cycle assessment of an battery electric vehicle and a hydrogen fuel cell vehicleComparative life cycle assessment of an battery electric vehicle and a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. NSERC/Cenovus/Alberta Innovates Associate Industrial Research Chair in Energy and Environmental Systems Engineering TAC Meeting University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-11-30 | Dipankar Khanna, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| Development of a techno-economic model for the assessment of cost of bitumen using steam-solvent extraction technology.Development of a techno-economic model for the assessment of cost of bitumen using steam-solvent extraction technology. University of Alberta | Activity | 2022-10-26 | Mustakimul Hoque, Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| Electrification of Bitumen Upgraders in the Oilsands SectorThere is a need to decarbonize the oilsands sector for total greenhouse gas emissions reduction. This study focuses on the potential of electrifying heating systems in the oilsands upgrading process to reduce GHG emissions. Traditionally, this process relies on burning fossil fuels, primarily natural gas, for the significant heat supply. The research identifies major energy-intensive units for targeted electrification in a typical delayed coking-based upgrading process. Preliminary findings indicate that units such as hydrogen production (49%), diluent recovery (9%), vacuum distillation (17%), delayed coking (2%), and hydrotreating (18%) constitute a significant portion of total energy consumption. The study also evaluates electrification technologies, suggesting promising ones for the heating process based on factors such as process conditions and technology readiness level (TRL). A comparative analysis of natural gas with renewable electricity-based heating provides substantial potential for decreased GHG emissions through electrification. Despite natural gas being a more economical energy source compared to renewable electricity, the increasing trend of carbon tax prices may justify the higher energy cost associated with replacing natural gas by renewable electricity, considering the abatement cost resulting from reduced carbon emissions. University of Alberta | Activity | 2024-10-07 | Mahsa Yousefikhanghah, Jubil Joy, Kumar, A. |
| Evaluation of CO₂ Integration in high-density polyethylene production: A techno-economic assessmentThe integration of captured CO₂ into high-density polyethylene (HDPE) production offers a promising pathway to reducing carbon emissions while meeting industrial polymer demand. This study presents a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of a CO₂-to-HDPE process, The proposed pathway includes CO₂ hydrogenation to methanol, methanol-to-dimethyl ether (DME) conversion, DME-to-olefins synthesis, and subsequent polymerization into HDPE. Process models were developed for each of the pathways. Economic factors including capital investment, operating costs, and process viability are evaluated under optimized conditions. Simulation results highlight that process efficiency is strongly influenced by catalyst selection, reaction kinetics, and conversion rates at each stage. Hydrogen sourcing, CO₂ capture costs, and overall energy consumption determine economic feasibility. Sensitivity analysis identifies key profitability drivers, including catalyst performance, energy integration, and market pricing of CO₂-derived ethylene. While initial capital costs are higher than conventional fossil-based production, advancements in CO₂ conversion and hydrogen availability could enhance economic competitiveness. This study comprehensively assesses CO₂-based HDPE production, outlining optimization strategies to improve process efficiency and support the transition toward sustainable polymer manufacturing. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-10-06 | "Pali Rosha", Kumar, A. |
| Evaluation of hydrogen vs heat pumps for space heating across Canada This study assesses the efficiency, cost, and feasibility of heat pumps and hydrogen as strategies for decarbonizing residential and commercial space heating across Canada’s provinces. It employs the LEAP-Canada energy systems model to simulate long-term energy transition scenarios through 2075. It evaluates the marginal abatement costs, cost-effectiveness, and infrastructure requirements associated with adopting heat pumps and/or hydrogen for space heating. The analysis compares the marginal abatement costs, infrastructure demands, and cost-effectiveness of heat pumps versus hydrogen. It also assesses the GHG reduction potential, operational performance across provinces, and the role of backup heating for heat pumps. Additionally, it compares the heating costs for typical homes using both technologies. Novel/Additive Information: This research addresses a critical gap in Canada-specific analysis of space heating decarbonization by focusing on the deployment of heat pumps and hydrogen. It provides valuable insights to support policymakers and stakeholders in formulating effective decarbonization strategies for the building sector nationwide. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-04-22 | Matthew Davis, Shibani, Saeidreza Radpour, Olugbenga Fakayode, Kumar, A. |
| How to assess the life cycle sustainability of technologies for future energy system? University of Alberta | Activity | 2018-09-25 | Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| Hydrogen as a key enabler for CO₂ utilization: A case study on methanol production, Canadian Hydrogen ConventionThe study offers insights into the role of hydrogen in industrial decarbonization by examining the interactions among carbon capture, renewable hydrogen sources, and regional energy policies. These insights are intended to support policymakers and industry stakeholders in leveraging hydrogen to achieve emissions reduction goals and advance Canada's low-carbon energy transition. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-04-23 | "Karina Anaya", Kumar, A. |
| Integrated Assessment of Decarbonization PathwaysPresentation Summary:
Integrated Assessment of GHG mitigation technologies in an energy system is critical to evaluate the full impact on the energy system which can help in policy formulation and investment decision-making.
Life cycle assessment (LCA) and Techno-economic assessment (TEA) only give partial picture for GHG mitigation technologies and their impacts on energy system.
Water impacts of the decarbonization technologies is critical in decision making.
LEAP & WEAP helps in conducting integrating assessment of energy systems.
University of Alberta | Activity | 2024-09-10 | Kumar, A. |
| Integrated assessment of methane reduction technologies in Canada’s oil and gas sector. In this study, a bottom-up methane-emissions model of the oil and gas sector is developed, encompassing the natural gas (tight gas, conventional gas, associated gas, coalbed methane, and shale gas formations), conventional oil (light and heavy oil) and oil sands (in-situ and surface-mined) sub-sectors. These sub-sectors are modelled over a period of 60 years (1990-2050), with historical years used to validate the model. Using Alberta as a case study, numerous methane emission reduction technologies are assessed, with pneumatic devices, vapour recovery units, compressor packing upgrades, and leak detection and repair as key technologies in the natural gas and conventional oil sub-sectors. Additional technologies include, but are not limited to, plunger lifts, flash tank separators, and electric motors. Emerging technologies, such as catalytic oxidizers, are also explored for their potential applications across all three sub-sectors. In the oil sands sub-sector, tailings pond methane capture and vapour recovery units are critical technologies. This research will project the market adoption of technologies, the maximum methane reduction technical potential, and the cost-effective reduction potential. Preliminary findings indicate that Canada is on track to surpass its 75% methane emissions reduction goal by 2030. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights to policymakers and industry decision-makers in identifying cost-effective pathways for methane emissions reduction, as well as if net-zero targets are achievable. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-05-26 | Goodluck Agu, Kumar, A. |
| Large-Scale CO2 Utilization for Production of Methanol in Carbon-Intensive Jurisdictions.This study explores the potential of large-scale CO2 utilization to produce methanol in regions heavily reliant on carbon-intensive energy sources, such Alberta, a western province in Canada. There is an urgent need to mitigate carbon emissions and transition to cleaner energy alternatives. Thus, the main objective is to assess the techno-economic feasibility and environmental impact of using CO2 hydrogenation processes for methanol synthesis, with a focus on jurisdictions with substantial carbon footprints. The scope extends to evaluating the efficiency improvements, cost implications, and potential carbon reduction.
The study makes a novel contribution by providing region-specific insights and recommendations that would benefit jurisdictions with high carbon footprints. The comprehensive modeling approach and utilization of simulation model offers a robust foundation for evaluating the large-scale production of methanol. It ensures a thorough and accurate analysis, setting the basis for informed decision-making and sustainable industrial practices. The study focuses on establishing a clear link between CO2 utilization, economic viability, and carbon emission reduction, for the adoption of CO2 -based technologies in carbon-intensive regions. University of Alberta | Activity | 2024-10-27 | Yurley Karina Anaya Jaimes, Jubil Joy, Kumar, A. |
| Life cycle assessment and techno-economic assessment for carbon recyclingWorkshop on carbon management dealing with CO2 emissions to approach net zero. The goal of the presentation was to share the advancements on the Canada-Japan collaboration aims at creating a common LCA/TEA methodology for carbon recycling. University of Alberta | Activity | 2025-03-11 | "Shinichirou Morimoto", "Jalil Shadbahr", Kumar, A. |
| Life cycle assessment of an electric vehicle: the impact of driving pattern and climatic conditions on the environmental performance. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-11-29 | Dipankar Khanna, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| Life cycle assessment of high-performance mono-crystalline titanium dioxide nanorod based perovskite solar cells University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-09-22 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Ujwal Thakur, Karthik Shankar, Kumar, A. |
| Life Cycle Assessment of High-Performance Monocrystalline TiO2 Nanorod Based Perovskite Solar Cells | Activity | 2022-07-28 | Karthik Shankar |
| Life cycle assessment of mono-crystalline TiO2 nanorod array based halide perovskite solar cells University of Alberta | Activity | 2019-05-07 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A., Karthik Shankar |
| Life Cycle Assessment of Monocrystalline TiO2 Nanorod Array Based Halide Perovskite Solar Cells University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-05-10 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A., Karthik Shankar |
| Life cycle environmental and techno-economic assessment of perovskite solar cells. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-07-16 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Ujwal Thakur, Karthik Shankar, Kumar, A. |
| Parametric analysis and energy efficiency enhancement of mixed plastic waste chemical recycling in a circular economyThis study evaluates the chemical recycling of mixed plastic to produce high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in a plant handling 500 tons/day of mixed plastic waste, reducing waste and dependence on fossil fuels. The process involves high-temperature gasification to produce syngas, which is purified, fermented into ethanol, dehydrated to form ethylene, and polymerized into HDPE. The parametric analysis maximizes the HDPE production, while the heat integration enhances energy efficiency. A detailed process simulation was developed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of this underexplored recycling pathway. The equivalence ratio of 0.21 and steam-to-plastic ratio of 0.45 at a gasification temperature of 1000°C was identified as optimal, producing the highest composition of CO at 41 wt.%. Beyond this temperature, H2 production declined, and CO2 increased due to the water-gas shift reaction. Ethanol separation energy decreased by 25% at 90% syngas conversion and 4 wt.% broth feed, reducing reboiler duty. Ethanol dehydration to ethylene occurred at 450°C and 1.2 bar, resulting in a 3.2% increase in HDPE production by reducing the H2/C2H4 ratio from 0.17 to 0.035 and increasing the catalyst and solvent flow rate by 20%. High-temperature syngas preheated air, steam, and mixed plastic to 500°C, reducing overall heat energy consumption by 33%. A total of 74.8 MW of heat energy was consumed, with 56% for gasification, 41% for ethanol fermentation, 2.5% for ethanol dehydration, and <1% for HDPE production, achieving 52.6% hydrocarbon conversion to produce 200 tons/day of HDPE. This approach converts mixed plastic waste into HDPE, reducing landfill dependency and supporting a circular economy. Additionally, this analysis identifies key parameters to maximize yield and minimize energy use, providing a scalable solution to plastic waste challenges and supporting sustainable development. | Activity | 2025-10-06 | "Shaivya Anand", Jubil Joy |
| The environmental performances of alternative materials for hydrogen production via photocatalytic water splitting University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-12-01 | Jayranjan Maurya, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| The techno-economic assessment of alternative materials for hydrogen production via photocatalytic water splitting. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-09-20 | Jayranjan Maurya, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| The techno-economic assessment of alternative materials for hydrogen production via photocatalytic water splitting. University of Alberta | Activity | 2021-11-29 | Jayranjan Maurya, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| The development of techno-economic frameworks to assess electrolytic hydrogen adoption for low carbon energy transitionThis dissertation argues that electrolytic hydrogen can provide cost and emissions reduction benefits in the energy sector. However, there is uncertainty in how to drive economically viable adoption owing to some research gaps, such as limited insight into exploitable potential from wind- and solar-powered electrolysis, limited understanding about the pathways to achieve cost-competitive electrolytic hydrogen supply with high availability, limited frameworks that show the system-value derived from using electrolytic hydrogen in low-carbon sectoral planning, and the lack of adoption models to show the dependencies needed for its long-term sectoral penetration. To address these shortcomings, this research developed a suite of techno-economic frameworks to evaluate the feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and adoption pathways for electrolytic hydrogen. | Publication | 2026-01-28 | Ayodeji Oluwalonimi Okunlola |
| Achieving carbon-neutral cement production by 2050 through the adoption of decarbonization technologiesStudies exploring decarbonization methods in cement production typically focus on applying a single technology or a small subset of technologies, missing the opportunity to compare a broad range of available technologies. Furthermore, few studies combine the impacts of all categories, thereby omitting inter-category impacts and failing to quantify the role of each category in decarbonization. This research addresses those gaps by identifying and assessing multiple technologies within several decarbonization categories. Additionally, technologies are combined to create carbon-neutral scenarios that explore the contribution of each category in decarbonizing the sector.
With Canada as a case study, energy demand and GHG emissions were modelled and validated against historical data from 1990-2019 at national and subnational levels. Technology and carbon-neutral scenarios were then evaluated from 2020-2050 and included capital costs, non-energy operating costs, energy costs, and carbon costs. For fuel-switching, transitioning to municipal solid waste or biomass in the precalciner can be done with negative GHG emission abatement costs under Canada’s current carbon price schedule. At full deployment, municipal solid waste and biomass reduce combustion GHG emissions by 39-62% annually. Hydrogen fuel and electrification of thermal energy, both transformative technologies, are not available until 2040 but reduce combustion GHG emissions from 89-98% annually when fully deployed. These results emphasize the competing demands of immediate GHG reductions and the long-term pursuit of carbon-neutral cement production. Establishing reliable, low-cost, low-carbon fuel supply chains is necessary to support fuel-switching in cement production, specifically for alternative fuels such as biomass and municipal solid waste in the short term and hydrogen in the long term.
An evaluation of several CCS technologies demonstrated that energy can account for as much as 81% of the total costs, eroding the benefits of capturing emissions and increasing sensitivity to energy price fluctuations. However, carbon pricing is the factor that most influences the economic benefit of carbon capture and storage technologies. Under the current carbon pricing schedule, marginal abatement costs range from -22 to 1 CAD/t CO2e, with the lowest energy demand technologies having the best economic return. A carbon price analysis shows that a minimum of 90 CAD/t CO2e by 2030 is necessary to ensure at least one CCS technology with a negative abatement cost in each region. | Publication | 2024-01-22 | "Garret Clark" |
| Assessment of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Integration into Natural Gas Energy Systems through Blending and BeyondThis study uses the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, customized as LEAP-Canada, to explore hydrogen integration into Canada's energy system. LEAP-Canada’s detailed, scenario-based approach enables a comprehensive analysis of energy policy and climate change mitigation assessment. The study captures the environmental and economic impacts of hydrogen adoption, offering insights that are crucial for supporting transition to net-zero GHG emissions.
Hydrogen-natural gas blending is a key mechanism to reduce the carbon intensity of energy while also scaling up hydrogen infrastructure for a net-zero economy. This study develops a comprehensive multi-regional analysis framework for hydrogen production, transmission, and the integration of 20% by volume low-carbon hydrogen into the existing natural gas energy systems. By examining hydrogen production prices and comparing them with import prices for autothermal reforming with carbon capture and storage (ATR-CCS) and grid electrolysis, the study identifies regions capable of producing, importing, and exporting hydrogen. The framework is applied to a Canadian case study through an analysis that simulates interregional low-carbon hydrogen trade and hydrogen-natural gas blending across diverse energy systems, from which 528 scenarios between 2030 and 2050 are evaluated. The results indicate that the most cost-effective scenarios involve Alberta exporting ATR-CCS-produced hydrogen to other regions and British Columbia producing its own hydrogen. These scenarios yield the lowest marginal greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement costs and demonstrate region-specific advantages in hydrogen production. Meanwhile, grid electrolysis offers the highest GHG reductions, with a maximum potential of 4.6% mitigation, emphasizing its role in broader decarbonization strategies.
In addition to hydrogen blending, the idea of hydrogen communities emerges as a potential solution for advancing net-zero goals. This study evaluates the environmental impact and economic viability of hydrogen-fueled devices in Alberta's residential and commercial sectors through two hydrogen production methods – ATR-CCS and grid electrolysis – alongside policy-driven penetration curves, cost-driven market models, and carbon pricing scenarios. Through a bottom-up model of Alberta’s energy system (LEAP-Canada), the study assesses 32 long-term scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The findings reveal that policy-driven penetration approaches with higher hydrogen adoption rates are more effective at reducing GHG emissions than cost-driven models. For instance, the ATR-CCS scenario with a carbon price of 350 CAD/tonne CO2e achieves the highest GHG mitigation of 13.88 Mt CO2e with a penetration target of 250,000 (36 million sq. m) hydrogen homes and 7.7 million sq. m of hydrogen buildings by 2050. Conversely, the lowest marginal abatement cost of 42 CAD/tonne CO2e occurs with a target of 200,000 (29 million sq. m) hydrogen homes and 6.1 million sq. m of hydrogen buildings.
Carbon pricing, particularly at 350 CAD/tonne CO2e, also plays a crucial role by reducing reliance on the use of fossil fuels for electricity, thereby making grid electrolysis more viable at higher carbon prices. The sensitivity analysis highlights that natural gas extraction and delivery emissions significantly impact GHG mitigation outcomes. Hydrogen device costs, production costs, and discount rates greatly influence marginal abatement costs across hydrogen communities’ scenarios, whereas the natural gas supply cost has a higher impact in hydrogen-natural gas blending scenarios.
Together, these findings provide essential insights for stakeholders and policymakers looking to expand the hydrogen economy, as they highlight the economic and environmental feasibility of hydrogen adoption in fossil-intensive regions. By leveraging region-specific strengths and strategically implementing hydrogen production methods, this research contributes to the development of effective decarbonization strategies that support a sustainable transition toward a low-carbon future.
| Publication | 2024-12-10 | Shibani |
| Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessments of Photocatalytic Hydrogen Production | Publication | 2022-08-24 | Jayranjan Maurya |
| Life cycle environmental and techno-economic assessments of monocrystalline titanium dioxide nanorod-based perovskite solar cells | Publication | 2021-01-04 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao |
| The Development of a Bottom-up Transportation Model for Assessment of Policies on Energy and EmissionsThe increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have led to implementation of various mitigation policies in order to limit the adverse impacts of climate change. However, it becomes challenging as the growth in energy demand outbalances the GHG mitigation measures. The transportation sector is predominantly reliant on fossil fuels and is responsible for 24% of direct GHG emissions globally.
This study assesses low-carbon energy transition pathways for road transport in a fossil fuel-dependent jurisdiction. In this research, a novel assessment framework is developed to analyze long-term energy transitions in the road transport sector considering sectorial activities, vehicle costs, market shares, energy use, and GHG emissions to 2050. The vehicle categories include cars, sport-utility vehicles, pickup trucks, vans, school buses, intercity transit buses, urban transit buses, and light, medium, and heavy freight trucks. Each fuel's full energy supply chain was modelled, including resource extraction, conversion, transmission and distribution, and fuelling, allowing for final and primary energy analysis. The framework was applied to the road transport sector in Alberta, Canada, one of the most emission-intensive regions in Canada. Nine scenarios on the effect of carbon prices, zero-emission vehicle mandates, and financial incentives on vehicle costs and market shares, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and social costs to 2050 were evaluated. The findings show that carbon price and zero-emission vehicle incentives do not effectively increase the market adoption of zero-emission vehicles on their own; zero-emission vehicle mandates are needed to transition the sector to zero-emission vehicles fully. It was found that the increase in carbon price from $0/tonne to $350/tonne increases the market share of zero-emission vehicles by 11% in 2050 and incentivizing the zero-emission vehicles increases the share by 9% in 2050. Assessing the current policies in Alberta, including $170/tonne carbon price by 2030 and zero-emission vehicle sales mandate in current policy scenario, it was found that these policy measures resulted in a 67% increase in the share of zero-emission vehicles in 2050. However, when the ZEV sales mandate was applied to all sectors, it resulted in a 90% increase in the market share of zero-emission vehicles in 2050. The market penetration potential for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is lower than battery-electric vehicles in all categories. The system-wide GHG emission footprints of hydrogen and battery electric vehicles are significantly below conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles in all cases. It was found that the GHG emission footprint of hydrogen vehicles supplied by auto-thermal reforming with 91% carbon capture was lower than for battery electric vehicles powered by a primarily natural gas-based power grid (53.6% and 83.2% natural gas-based electricity generation in 2030 and 2050). The findings on the effectiveness of carbon prices vs incentives vs vehicle mandates should be considered by government policymakers who are aiming to reduce GHG emissions from road transport and will inform infrastructure planners and other energy stakeholders.
| Publication | 2023-06-30 | Minza Haider |
| Development of life cycle GHG emissions of high-performance mono-crystalline titanium dioxide nanorod based perovskite solar cells | Activity | 2020-10-14 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Ujwal Thakur, Karthik Shankar |
| The life cycle energy and environmental footprints of high-performance monocrystalline titanium dioxide nanorod-base perovskite solar cells University of Alberta | Activity | 2020-11-23 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Ujwal Thakur, Karthik Shankar, Kumar, A. |
| A comprehensive assessment of the integration of solvent and steam for the extraction of bitumen through the development of novel process modelsSolvent-steam bitumen extraction technology has the potential to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is based on gravity drainage, wherein a steam and vaporized solvent mixture is used to extract bitumen from a reservoir. This can reduce the environmental impact compared with processes that use only steam for bitumen extraction [i.e., steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD)]. No techno-economic analysis of solvent-steam extraction has been made available in the public domain. In this study, a process simulation model was developed to assess costs. A capacity of 25,000 B/D of bitumen was considered with hexane as the solvent. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted to assess how the supply cost of bitumen produced with diluent (dilbit) changes with changes in input parameters. The supply cost for the base case scenario is 55.5 CAD/bbl at a 10% internal rate of return (IRR). The scale factor was estimated to be 0.80, which suggests that oil production will be economically viable on a large scale. Capital cost, solvent price, and transportation and blending cost affect the supply cost. The most probable supply cost range is 53.0–65.4 CAD/bbl at a 90% confidence interval. The results also indicate that dilbit supply costs from the solvent-steam process are economically attractive compared with the current oil price. University of Alberta | Publication | 2024-01-19 | Mustakimul Hoque, Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| A framework for analyzing the market penetration for low-carbon road vehiclesThis study assesses pathways for transitioning to low-carbon energy in road transport in a fossil fuel-dependent jurisdiction. A novel assessment framework was developed and applied to road transport to analyze the transition in the sector considering sector activity, vehicle costs, and market shares to 2050. Seven fuel technologies and ten vehicle categories including hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles were examined across all sectors. Nine scenarios that incorporate three policy pathways – financial incentives, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, and carbon prices – were evaluated. Different scenarios within these pathways were explored and their impact on vehicle costs and market shares to 2050 were evaluated. A case study focused on Alberta, a fossil fuel-intensive province in Canada, was performed using the developed framework. Results indicate carbon pricing and ZEV incentives alone are insufficient for significant ZEV adoption by 2050. Without a zero-emission vehicle policy, hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric passenger vehicles are projected to have market shares of 16 % and 31 % by 2050, respectively. With a 100 % zero-emission vehicle sales mandate by 2035, these shares rise to 36 % and 64 %, respectively, by 2050. The findings on the effectiveness of policy frameworks can be considered for policy development to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions from the road transportation sector and will inform infrastructure planners and other energy stakeholders. The developed framework can be applied internationally to assess the transport sector. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-06-01 | Minza Haider, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| A review of Canadian wood conversion technologies for the production of fuels and chemicalsCanada has 347 million ha of forest cover, contributing to the potential large availability of wood-based resources. Although Canada's forest sector contributed $23.7 billion to the national nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, the GDP contribution of the wood product manufacturing subsector shrank by 6%. To reposition the Canadian forest industry, new forest management practices and wood-based conversion technologies should be applied. In this context, the use of woody biomass in biorefineries to produce clean energy, fuels, and chemicals is becoming increasingly significant. There is a need to understand the current status and challenges of the wood-based biomass conversion technologies that have been and are being developed in Canada. This information will help decision-makers in formulating and implementing forest sector-related policies for a sustainable bioeconomy in Canada. This study is focused on a review of Canadian woody biomass conversion technologies. Our critical review identified considerable potential biomass conversion technologies specialized for woody feedstock, all in the Canadian setting. We focused on the prospects of revitalizing Canada's pulp and paper industry through the integration of pre-treatment processes and biochemical technologies. The thermochemical conversion pathway was identified as the dominant route for woody feedstock valorization. The review also identified pathways with the potential to diversify the existing product mix that generates products from wood streams, such as chemicals and biomaterials. Most of the biochemical and thermochemical research done in institutional and multi-institutional research collaborations from laboratory scale to industrial scale will boost the chances of the commercialization of a wood-based biorefinery in Canada. University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-07-06 | "Sreekumar A", Vinoj Kurian, Kumar, A., Omex Mohan, "Mvolo C" |
| A review of how life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of hydropower energyA review of how life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of hydropower energy University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-10-01 | Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| Advancing synthetic fuel technology: A model study for the integration of direct air carbon capture and diesel synthesisDirect air capture (DAC) integrated with solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC) and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis is a promising way to produce carbon-neutral liquid fuels. However, the high demand for renewable electricity, particularly from electrolytic hydrogen production, and limited cross-process integration pose key challenges to this mode of production. This study addressed these constraints by modeling a fully integrated DAC–SOEC–FT diesel system using a commercial, equation-oriented simulation platform under steady-state conditions and assuming that renewable power supplied the SOEC unit. The process design incorporated thermal and process-level integration with waste heat from the calciner, FT reactor, and SOEC burner repurposed for internal heating and feed conditioning. System-derived byproducts (e.g., naphtha, purge gases) were used as internal fuels to minimize external energy inputs and avoid additional emissions. Results showed that under ideal thermal integration scenarios, the theoretical internal recovery of up to 78% of total process heat could substantially reduce reliance on external utilities. While SOEC remained the primary electricity consumer (29.8 MWh/t-diesel), internal energy recovery mitigated auxiliary demands. Cradle-to-gate CO2 emissions were net-negative and reached –1.20 kg-CO2/kg-diesel in Japan and –1.56 kg-CO2/kg-diesel in Canada. These results emphasized the strong synergies unlocked by integrated system design and offered a pathway toward energy-efficient, carbon-negative synthetic diesel suited for hard-to-abate transport sectors. University of Alberta | Publication | 2026-01-10 | "Alexander Guzman-Urbina", "Tantiwatthanaphanich Thanapan", "Karina Anaya", "Jalil Shadbahr", Kumar, A., "Giovanna Gonzales-Calienes", "Shinichirou Morimoto" |
| An assessment of the long-term water, greenhouse gas, and cost impacts of low-carbon in situ oil sands technologies The oil sands sector is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 11.3 % of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. In the next 30 years, bitumen production is expected to increase by 1.2 million cubic meters per year, representing a 42 % increase from the 2020 production level; therefore, advancing low-carbon oil sands extraction technologies is critical. While many strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands sector have been proposed, there are few assessments of associated water-use impacts. To fill this knowledge gap, this research builds on a novel data-intensive and technology-specific model of the in situ bitumen extraction sector in Canada developed to determine the long-term water and greenhouse gas footprints of the penetration of emerging low-carbon oil sands recovery technologies. The market penetration of seven novel low-carbon and three conventional in situ bitumen extraction techniques through four different technology mix scenarios between 2020 and 2050 were considered. The results show maximum water savings and GHG abatement potential in 2050 of 7 % and 17 %, respectively, at a $59/cubic meter water savings cost and a $32/tonne carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas abatement cost in a high carbon tax scenario. Total water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are projected to reach 43.8 million cubic meters and 49.9 million tonnes in 2050 under the scenario that best reduces water use and emissions. Although freshwater use from in situ recovery is 0.05 % of the Athabasca River flow, projected annual emissions from the oil sands industry are significant, thus further efforts are needed to meet Canada’s net-zero emissions target by 2050. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-06-25 | Gustavo Moraes Coraca, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Assessing the cost competitiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production from small modular nuclear reactor-based power plants: a price-following perspectiveAssessing the cost competitiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production from small modular nuclear reactor-based power plants: a price-following perspective University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-04-11 | Ayodeji Oluwalonimi Okunlola, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Assessment of carbon-abatement pricing to maximize the value of electrolytic hydrogen in emissions-intensive power sectors, Electrolytic hydrogen can support the decarbonization of the power sector. Achieving cost-effective power-to-gas-to-power (PGP) integration through targeted emissions pricing can accelerate the adoption of electrolytic hydrogen in greenhouse gas-intensive power sectors. This study develops a framework for assessing the economic viability of electrolytic hydrogen-based PGP systems in fossil fuel-dependent grids, while considering the competing objectives of the electricity system operator, a risk-averse investor, and the government. Here we show that, given the risk-averse investor’s inherent pursuit of profit maximization, a break-even carbon abatement cost of at least 57 Canadian Dollars per tonne of CO₂ by 2030 from the government, with a shift in electricity market dispatch rules from sole system marginal price-reduction to system-wide emissions reduction, is essential to stimulate price discovery for low-cost hydrogen production and contingency reserve provision by the PGP system. This work can help policymakers capture and incentivize the role of electrolytic hydrogen in low-carbon power sector planning. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-08-28 | "Ayodeji Okunlola", Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Assessment of life cycle environmental impacts of materials, driving pattern and climatic conditions on battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in a cold regionThis paper described:
• Life cycle assessment of conventional and CFRP-based BEVs and HFCVs in a cold climate.
• The prime factors considered for LCA such as materials, driving pattern, and climate.
Results on:
• Lowest GHG emissions: 68.7 g CO2 eq/km in CFRP-based BEV, city summer.
• Highest GHG emissions: 364 g CO2 eq/km in conventional HFCV, highway severe winter.
Other results highlight:
• GHG emissions are sensitive to BEV lifetime and HFCV fuel cell efficiency. University of Alberta | Publication | 2024-09-27 | Dipankar Khanna, Eskinder Gemechu, Nafisa Mahbub, Jubil Joy, Kumar, A. |
| Assessment of low-carbon hydrogen integration into natural gas energy systems beyond blending: An analysis of pure H2 communities in a natural gas-dependent regionHydrogen communities are an emerging concept that could significantly help reduce carbon emissions and support the pursuit of net-zero goals. This study assesses the integration of low-carbon hydrogen into residential and commercial natural gas energy systems, focusing on the environmental impact and economic viability of pure hydrogen communities. Hydrogen production through autothermal reforming with carbon capture and storage and grid electrolysis are analysed through policy-driven and cost-driven deployment approaches. A bottom-up model of Alberta's energy supply and demand system (LEAP-Canada) is used to assess 32 scenarios set between 2030 and 2050. This study also develops a cost factor through a bottom-up cost analysis of hydrogen furnaces, water heaters, and ranges in comparison to natural gas counterparts. Results show that the cost of transitioning to hydrogen communities is significant compared to natural gas baselines, even with carbon pricing up to 350 CAD/tonne. Policy-driven hydrogen communities with 250,000 hydrogen homes and 8 million square meters of commercial area avoid up to 13 million tonnes CO2eq with a marginal abatement cost of 99 CAD/tonne after considering carbon credits of 350 CAD/tonne. In contrast, cost-based market penetration of hydrogen homes and buildings achieve low penetration with low mitigation. Further, grid electrolysis scenarios exhibit substantially higher marginal abatement costs (over 400 CAD/tonne CO2eq). While transitioning natural gas communities to hydrogen can contribute to decarbonization goals, the marginal costs of abatement are high, indicating alternative decarbonization means should be investigated and compared prior to policy decisions. The modeling framework is adaptable to other regions and offers valuable insights for policy makers and stakeholders. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-08-01 | Shibani, Matthew Davis, Saeidreza Radpour, Kumar, A. |
| Composite score-based analysis of carbon capture strategies for sustainable natural gas-to-methanol: A comprehensive assessmentMethanol production from natural gas remains highly carbon-intensive. Previous studies have examined its energy, environmental, or economic dimensions in isolation, often neglecting the combined influence of carbon capture, syngas quality adjustment, and process heat substitution under consistent boundaries. This study presents the first integrated techno-economic and environmental assessment of methanol production via steam methane reforming (SMR) and autothermal reforming (ATR), developed as a case study for Alberta, Canada. The analysis integrates detailed Aspen HYSYS simulations to evaluate energy performance, environmental footprint, and cost using Alberta-specific utility prices and grid emission factors. Thirty-seven configurations were evaluated across varying stoichiometric numbers (SNs), carbon capture strategies, and process heat sources (natural gas or hydrogen). SMR with natural gas utility and pre-combustion CCS achieved the highest net energy ratio (0.77), whereas SMR with hydrogen utility and full CCS yielded the lowest GHG emissions (0.48 kg CO2/kg-MeOH). The lowest minimum selling price (MSP, $229.13/t) occurred for SMR with natural gas utility, pre-CCS, and hydrogen by-product revenue. Composite scoring identified SMR (SN = 2.91, pre-CCS) and ATR (SN = 1.77, full CCS) as the most balanced low-carbon pathways. Integrating carbon pricing and hydrogen revenue reduced breakeven prices to $10/t-CO2 (SMR) and $9/t-CO2 (ATR). Morris and Monte Carlo analyses revealed natural gas price, carbon price, discount rate, and hydrogen storage duration as dominant cost drivers, with uncertainties in cost estimates of ±1.7 % for SMR and ±1.5 % for ATR. This work establishes a comprehensive framework to evaluate conventional reforming with CCS and by-product valorization toward competitive, low-carbon methanol production in fossil-reliant regions. University of Alberta | Publication | 2026-02-28 | "Karina Anaya", Jubil Joy, Kumar, A. |
| Developing a framework to evaluate the life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions of space heating systems using zeolite 13X as an adsorbent materialThe wide use of fossil-based space heating systems results in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using solar energy for space heating can help reduce GHG emissions. However, solar energy generation is intermittent and needs to be stored for continuous supply. The zeolite 13× adsorbent heat storage system for space heating is a promising alternative. There is limited research on the life cycle GHG footprint of this type of adsorbent storage system. In this study, we developed a framework that integrates engineering design with life cycle assessment to evaluate the energy and emission performances of a zeolite 13×-based heating system charged by a solar air collector. A simulation model was developed for this adsorbent storage system. The life cycle GHG emissions of the residential heating system are estimated to be 0.1160 kg CO2 eq per kWh of the heat delivered over a 20-year lifetime. The operational phase contributes 74 % of the overall emissions because of the energy required by the humidifiers. The material production stage accounts for 25 %, mainly attributed to the upstream emissions in manufacturing photovoltaic thermal (PVT) air solar systems. The net energy ratio (NER), the ratio of energy output to fossil energy input, is 2.9. The continuous days without sunlight, the adsorbent vessel length-to-diameter ratio (L/D), and the pellet diameter of the zeolite 13× storage appear to be the parameters most sensitive to both emissions and NER. The uncertainty analysis shows emissions and NERs of the space heating system in the range of 97.2–152.3 g CO2 eq/kWh and 2.4–3.0, respectively. Compared with other alternative heating systems, the adsorbent system has better GHG performance. The research highlights the importance of selecting a suitable space heating system given the high influence of operational energy on the life cycle emissions and the range of electricity generation emissions in different provinces. University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-11-02 | T V Tran, Eskinder Gemechu, Olufemi Oni, "Carrier Y", "Tezel H", Kumar, A. |
| Developing a techno-economic model to evaluate the cost performance of a zeolite 13X-based space heating systemA zeolite-based heating system charged with air solar collectors was designed.
A techno-economic model of the zeolite 13X space heating system was developed to estimate the storage cost.
The levelized cost of energy storage is $0.06 per kWh over a 20-year lifespan.
The estimated capital cost scale factor of the zeolite-based space heating system is 0.761.
Sensitivity analysis suggests that zeolite pellet diameter is one of the key inputs affecting the design and the cost. University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-09-06 | Ngoc Khanh Thy Tran, Olufemi Oni, Eskinder Gemechu, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Development of a framework to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from the adoption of low-carbon road vehicles in a hydrocarbon-rich regionThis study developed a novel assessment framework to analyze long-term energy transition in the road transport sector in which various technology options, market shares, policy measures, costs, and greenhouse gas emissions are considered in a single framework analysis. A data-intensive model was developed with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and used to analyze policy scenarios up to 2050 for Alberta, Canada, a hydrocarbon-rich province with an emission-intensive energy sector. Three key policy measures – carbon pricing, zero-emission vehicle sales mandate, and incentivization – were analyzed in nine individual and combined policy scenarios. The transition to both hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles was assessed for
all vehicle categories. Each fuel’s full energy supply chain was modeled, including resource extraction, conversion, transmission and distribution, and fuelling, allowing for final and primary energy analysis. The findings show that carbon price and zero-emission vehicle incentives do not effectively lower greenhouse gas emissions on their own; zero-emission vehicle mandates are needed to transition the sector to a low-carbon energy system. The system-wide greenhouse gas emission footprints of hydrogen and battery electric vehicles are significantly below conventional vehicles in all cases. Scenarios biased towards battery electric vehicles had the most favorable results. The greenhouse gas emission footprint of hydrogen vehicles supplied by auto-thermal
reforming with 91% carbon capture was lower than for battery electric vehicles powered by a primarily natural gas-based power grid. The findings on the effectiveness of carbon prices, incentives, and vehicle mandates should be considered by government policymakers aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, infrastructure planners, and other energy stakeholders. University of Alberta | Publication | 2024-01-12 | Minza Haider, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Investigating the techno-economic and environmental performance of chemical looping technology for hydrogen productionInvestigating the techno-economic and environmental performance of chemical looping technology for hydrogen production University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-01-19 | "Anaya K", Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| Is there a role for firm hydrogen-based electricity in future energy systems? A comparative analysis of firm low-carbon electricity optionsGlobal electricity demand is expected to double as economies decarbonize, posing a dual challenge for fossil-based electricity systems: meet rising demands and transition to low-carbon technologies. Initiatives around the world have begun exploring the use of low-carbon hydrogen in electricity systems; however, research on blue hydrogen in different grid contexts is limited. This paper analyzes blue hydrogen-based firm low-carbon electricity and compares it with alternatives of green hydrogen, nuclear, and natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A new analysis framework and long-term energy-systems model are applied to Alberta, Canada, a jurisdiction with heavy reliance on natural gas. Ninety-two scenarios representing different technology mixes, technology costs, and carbon pricing were analyzed from 2025 to 2050. Of the technologies to supply blue hydrogen, autothermal reforming (ATR) was the most effective considering cumulative cost and GHG abatement together; however, all assessed alternatives to blue hydrogen were more effective. ATRCCS-based scenarios reduced cumulative system-wide emissions by less than 5 % by 2050, and had the highest marginal abatement costs ($161–$371/t), whereas natural gas with CCS scenarios reduced at least two times more emissions at lower marginal abatement costs ($7–$86/t). The next lowest MACs were from nuclear scenarios ($64–$94/t), then green hydrogen scenarios ($102–$107/t), with 37–39 % and 29–42 % of emissions abatement, respectively. Overall, findings suggest a limited and low-value role for blue hydrogen in future electricity systems, given the available alternatives for providing low-carbon firm electricity. These findings should be considered by decision makers when developing policy, allocating funding, and designing technology support mechanisms. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-10-30 | Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Life cycle analysis of the simultaneous production of lithium hydroxide monohydrate and lithium carbonate from spodumene ore using electrodialysisThe need to combat climate change and to achieve carbon neutrality is driving demand for clean energy technologies, highlighting the importance of sustainable production pathways for lithium-ion battery precursors. Although prior research has assessed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) production in specific regions, a significant gap remains in the comprehensive life cycle analyses of electrodialysis-based systems co-producing LHM and lithium carbonate across different geographical locations and operational conditions. This study conducts a cradle-to-gate, Canada-specific baseline life cycle assessment (LCA) of flexible LHM and lithium carbonate co-production. It uses an electrodialysis-based electrochemical process, accompanied by detailed modeling of sub-processes to enhance GHG emission reduction by reducing energy consumption. The study also assesses the adaptability and feasibility of the facility under varying geographical and operational conditions. The results indicate that 175.6 Megawatts (MW) of energy is required for a spodumene input capacity of 250 tph. The primary energy consumers are the electrochemical process and mining, at 97.2 MW and 49.6 MW, respectively. Within the electrochemical process, electrolysis consumes 65.7 % of the total energy, representing approximately 36 % of the total energy used in the LHM production process. The study also found that the total life cycle GHG emission is 9.15 t CO 2 e/t LHM. The main contributors to GHG emissions in LHM production are the electrochemical process and mining, contributing 5.48 t CO 1.85 t CO 2 2 e/t LHM and e/t LHM, respectively. These emissions can be reduced by using the hydrogen by-product from the electrodialysis process and integrating renewable energy into mining, milling, and electrochemical operations. Additionally, small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) present a promising low-carbon alternative for powering these stages. The model shows life cycle GHG emissions from 3.91 to 10.97 t CO 2 e/t LHM, mainly influenced by electricity emissions and scalability. Sensitivity analyses confirm its adaptability in different regions and operating conditions. The 0.06 t CO₂e/t LHM GHG emission difference between production ratios of 100 % LHM and 50 % LHM results in 4092 t annually, mainly due to CO₂ injection during carbonation and drying energy use. Overall, increased energy demand is largely offset by CO₂ injection, minimizing net emissions. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-09-12 | "Saurav Rathore", Jubil Joy, Kumar, A. |
| Life cycle assessment of earth-abundant photocatalysts for enhanced photocatalytic hydrogen productionHydrogen (H2) can play a critical role in global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Photocatalytic water splitting using solar radiation is a promising H2 technology. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) and carbon nitride (g–C3N4)–based photocatalysts are the most widely used photocatalytic materials because of their activity and abundance. Several attempts have been made to improve the photocatalytic performance of these materials in terms of their activity level, life span, response to visible radiation, and stability. However, the environmental impacts of these modifications are often not included in existing studies. This research, therefore, develops a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) framework to evaluate and compare the GHG footprints of four alternative pathways: TiO2 nanorods and fluorine-doped carbon nitride quantum dots embedded with TiO2 (CNF: TNR/TiO2), g-C3N4, and g-C3N4/BiOI composite. Unlike most studies that focus only on certain stages such as laboratory-scale photocatalytic fabrication, this study includes utility-scale cell production, assembly, operation, and end of life to give a more accurate and precise environmental performance estimation. The results show that g-C3N4/BiOI has the lowest GHG footprint (0.38 kg CO2 eq per kg of H2) and CNF: TNR/TiO2 has the lowest energy payback time (0.4 years). In every pathway, energy use in material extraction processes makes up the largest GHG contribution, between 83% and 89%. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted under the impact of various input parameters on the life cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen production. Photocatalytic water splitting is highly feasible for adaptation as a mainstream hydrogen production pathway in the future.
University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-05-31 | Jayranjan Maurya, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| Life cycle assessment of high-performance monocrystalline titanium dioxide nanorod-based perovskite solar cells University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-07-23 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Ujwal Thakur, Karthik Shankar, Kumar, A. |
| Multi-measure pathways for achieving carbon-neutral cement productionGreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement production continue to rise, making it the second-largest source of industrial GHG emissions. In this study, we develop a framework to evaluate several decarbonization technologies and scenarios to achieve carbon-neutral cement production. A case study for Canada was conducted using this developed framework. Decarbonization technologies are grouped into six categories (energy efficiency, fuel switching, alternative raw materials, alternative binders and chemistries, carbon capture and storage, and cement carbonation) and each is evaluated using a bottom-up technology-explicit energy model. The results show that carbon-neutral cement production can be achieved before 2050 with marginal abatement costs of −17 to −34 CAD/t CO2e and cumulative GHG emissions reductions of 199–242 Mt. CO2e, based on a carbon price of 170 CAD/t CO2 by 2030. The results are comparable to roadmaps from other jurisdictions but with some important distinctions. Canada continues to have a higher clinker/cement ratio and lower alternative fuel consumption than other jurisdictions, meaning carbon capture and storage is expected to play a larger role in reducing GHG emissions. Furthermore, carbon neutrality cannot be achieved without carbonation or a similar offset. Therefore, it is important that all cement-producing regions begin formalizing a framework to guide the calculation of carbonation impacts and compile the information to support those calculations. Finally, a sensitivity analysis concluded that carbon pricing is required in every carbon-neutral scenario to achieve negative GHG emissions abatement costs. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-06-05 | "Garrett Clark", Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| Strategic valorization of biogenic CO2 from kraft pulp millsKraft pulp and paper mills, significant sources of biogenic CO2 emissions, offer a promising opportunity for carbon capture and valorization. This study develops a framework for assessment of the combined implementation of carbon capture and methanol production through CO2 hydrogenation, using biogenic emissions from kraft pulp mills, assessing both technical and economic viability. Canada has the opportunity to capture approximately 22.2 million tonnes of biogenic CO2 annually from these mills, with capture costs ranging from $62 to $104 per tonne. Sensitivity analysis reveals the process's sensitivity to capital costs, internal rate of return (IRR), and utility costs, while Monte Carlo simulations indicate cost uncertainties of $76.54 ± 5.60 per tonne. Furthermore, the study extends to methanol synthesis using the captured CO2 and a SMR-CCS-based hydrogen, examining two production pathways: decentralized construction of methanol plants near individual mills and centralized plants with CO2 transported via pipelines. The captured CO2 could be converted into approximately 15.6 million tonnes of methanol annually. Production costs range from $642 to $751 per tonne in the decentralized pathway and $650 to $700 per tonne in the centralized, both competitive with the market price of $722 per tonne. Hydrogen costs drive over 69% of production expenses, with Monte Carlo simulations showing production cost uncertainties of $678.50 ± 59.86 per tonne. These findings demonstrate the economic feasibility of carbon capture and methanol production from kraft pulp mills and present a transferable framework that can be applied to other regions by substituting Canadian-specific inputs with locally relevant data for biogenic CO2 utilization. | Publication | 2026-03-26 | Fahim Mahmud Khan, "Abhishek Dwivedi", "Pali Rosha" |
| Techno-economic assessment of titanium dioxide nanorod-based perovskite solar cells: from lab-scale to large-scale manufacturing Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have shown remarkable progress in recent years. Different materials and structures have been developed to improve the photoconversion efficiency and operational stability of PSCs. However, the economic and technical impacts of materials and design choice on the large-scale deployment are not well addressed in the literature. In this research, a pathway for producing titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanorod-based perovskite solar modules was established and their manufacturing cost was estimated through the development of data-intensive, bottom-up techno-economic models. Material, utilities, and equipment requirements from available laboratory data to a mass production annual capacity of up to 21 MW were estimated through the development of scale factors. The minimum sustainable price and levelized cost of electricity were calculated. The direct manufacturing cost of the reference PSC module was estimated at $80.23/m2 and $0.73/W with a production capacity of 3.5 MWp. These costs decline to $47.15/m2 and $0.43/W at 21 MW production capacity. Material costs dominate the overall costs, fluorine-doped tin oxide glass being the most expensive material. The perovskite solar cell panels, when installed in residential homes in Alberta, Canada, were calculated to have a competitive levelized cost of electricity ranging from 7 to 17 cents per kWh. However, the cost was found to be extremely sensitive to the module efficiency, lifetime, and the solar insolation at the location of installation. University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-06-18 | Harshadeep Kukkikatte Ramamurthy Rao, Eskinder Gemechu, Ujwal Thakur, Karthik Shankar, Kumar, A. |
| The development of a differential pricing mechanism for the electrolytic hydrogen-based gas-to-power systems in the power sectorElectrolytic hydrogen could support low-carbon energy systems planning, particularly through power-to-gas-to-power (PtG-GtP) operations in the power sector. However, achieving long-term economic viability has remained uncertain, and limited research exists on how to incentivize PtG-GtP systems for value provided to the electricity system. This study develops a novel framework to derive a differential pricing (DP) incentive that supports the incremental deployment of PtG-GtP systems in an electricity system undergoing a low-carbon transition. The DP incentive is defined by the difference in electricity marginal prices between a cost-minimizing objective and a risk-averse goal that prioritizes reversible electrolytic hydrogen use. Applying the DP incentive lowers the PtG-GtP system's levelized cost to C$6/kg H₂, six times lower than without the incentive, while also contributing to reductions in reserve market cost. The study's findings hold under a stepwise, incremental approach to deploying multiple PtG-GtP systems over the long term. University of Alberta | Publication | 2026-04-16 | " Ayodeji Ayodeji Okunlola, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| The development of a framework to assess long-term water supply and demand projections for an integrated assessment of environment impacts for the energy sectorThis paper aims to develop a framework for assessing cross-sectoral water demand over a long-term planning horizon using a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for the energy sector and integrating it with the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This framework spatially associates surface and ground water supply resources with sectoral water demand between 2005 and 2050. The developed framework uses a hybrid top-down and bottom-up approach for linking water use in the municipal, commercial, oil and gas, power, industrial, and agriculture sectors with their water sources. Annual water use associated with future changes in population, oil sands production (in situ and surface mining), power generation fuels and technologies, and agricultural and livestock population is quantified. A case study for Alberta was conducted. Eleven future scenarios were evaluated, and model results show that the water demand might increase by 11–25% from the 2020 demand by 2050. The developed framework can be used to provide insights into patterns of water demand and supply for the energy sector as well as other sectors in different scenarios and can be integrated with assessments of GHG emissions, which can aid in decision-making at the provincial and national levels. This framework can be used for other jurisdictions. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-10-22 | Anum Fahim Dar, "Thomas Patrick", Md Alam Hossain Mondal, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| The development of a framework to assess the sectoral penetration of small modular nuclear reactors in electrolysis-based ammonia productionElectrolytic hydrogen can help decarbonize emissions-intensive sectors, such as ammonia production, where electrification is challenging. However, there is limited information on penetration pathways for small modular nuclear reactor-based electrolytic ammonia (SMNRPP-NH3). This study introduces a framework for modelling the adoption of SMNRPP-NH3 systems and evaluates its potential to displace conventional ammonia. A case study of Alberta, Canada, showed that with a carbon price of $170/tCO2, SMNRPP-NH3 systems can meet 75% of the regional ammonia demand by 2050 at a levelized cost of $420/tNH3, which is 16% lower than natural gas-based ammonia. High technology learning rates, capital cost reductions, and accelerated deployment had more significant effects on the penetration than the GHG footprint of the conventional ammonia. The study findings can inform policy formulation and long-term investment planning to support the integration of electrolysis in the ammonia production sector. The developed framework can also be replicated globally with appropriate adjustments to the data. University of Alberta | Publication | 2026-04-06 | "Ayodeji Okunlola", Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| The development of a framework to compare carbon capture and storage technologies as means of decarbonizing cement productionCement production is hard to abate given that energy-efficiency measures and fuel switching have no impact on process emissions and a limited impact on total greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative cements and decarbonized raw materials can reduce process emissions; however, complete decarbonization requires carbon capture. Yet, most decarbonization roadmaps and studies generalize carbon capture without acknowledging differences between the technologies or regions in which they are implemented. To address this gap, we developed a bottom- up technology-explicit model of the cement sector to compare six technologies: chemical absorption, physical adsorption, membrane absorption, calcium looping, partial oxyfuel technology, and full oxyfuel technology. We explored energy and greenhouse gas impacts, capital costs, non-energy operating costs, energy costs, and carbon costs. A case study for Canada demonstrated that carbon capture technologies can be implemented at emissions abatement costs of 22 to 1 CAD/t CO 2 e, accounting for carbon price credits. Our findings show that energy can account for up to 81 % of the total costs, eroding the benefit of avoided carbon costs and increasing sensitivity to energy prices. However, carbon pricing still strongly influences the economics of carbon capture technologies and a minimum carbon price of 90 CAD/t CO 2 e by 2030 ensures carbon capture remains economical across Canada. The developed framework can used globally to help develop policy formulation and inform investment. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-03-04 | "Garret Clark", Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| The development of a GIS-based framework to assess the technical hydrogen production potential from wind and solar energyThe development of a GIS-based framework to assess the technical hydrogen production potential from wind and solar energy University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-06-04 | Ayodeji Oluwalonimi Okunlola, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| The development of a techno-economic model for the assessment of the cost of flywheel energy storage systems for utility-scale stationary applications
• A techno-economic assessment was performed for flywheel storage systems.
• A bottom-up cost model was developed to assess the levelized cost of flywheel storage.
• Composite and steel rotor flywheels were assessed for frequency regulation.
• The steel rotor flywheel has a lower capital cost and levelized cost of storage.
• The costs of composite and steel rotor flywheels are $190 and $146/MWh, respectively. University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-06-15 | M M Rahman, Eskinder Gemechu, Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| The development of an analysis framework for the integration of low-carbon hydrogen into multi-regional natural gas energy systemsIn 2023, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 40 billion tonnes, 60 % more than in 1990, intensifying climate concerns. This study explores hydrogen-natural gas blending as a transitional strategy for decarbonization across several regions and energy sectors – residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural. A multi-regional analysis framework evaluates integration of 20 % by volume low-carbon hydrogen blending into natural gas systems, by identifying hydrogen producers, importers, and exporters based on production and import costs. Applied to Canada, 528 scenarios (2026–2050) assess inter-regional hydrogen trade within Canadian provinces. The lowest-cost scenario involves Alberta exporting hydrogen produced through autothermal reforming with 91 % carbon capture and storage and British Columbia producing its own. The grid electrolysis scenario achieves the highest GHG reductions, with a 4.5 % GHG mitigation in Canada with full energy system representation. These findings provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders in advancing hydrogen infrastructure and decarbonization strategies. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-11-10 | Shibani, Matthew Davis, Kumar, A. |
| The development of process-based techno-economic models for the assessment of critical minerals recovery from bitumen extraction tailingsCritical minerals such as zircon and titanium are essential for the development of a low-carbon economy, with increasing demand driven by advancements in renewable energy technologies. Bitumen extraction tailings, specifically from froth treatment operations, represent an underused source of these minerals. This study presents a techno-economic assessment of recovering zircon and titanium from bitumen froth treatment tailings (FTT). The process has two stages: heavy mineral concentration and separation. In the first stage, tailings undergo desliming, flotation, and solvent extraction to concentrate heavy minerals. In the second stage, the concentrate is separated into zircon, rutile, ilmenite, and leucoxene using flotation, gravity, electrostatic, and magnetic techniques. A data-intensive process model was developed to calculate material and energy balances, equipment sizes, capital and operating costs, and internal rate of return (IRR). A plant processing 15.5 million tonnes of tailings annually can recover 157,000 tonnes of heavy minerals, generating an IRR of 9.8% at current market prices for zircon and rutile. Separating the process into two stages results in an IRR of 7.6%, with capacity and zircon price being the most influential factors. Sensitivity analysis shows that the IRR could range from 6.9% to 11.5% depending on input uncertainties. This study provides valuable insights for stakeholders interested in the economic potential of recovering critical minerals from bitumen extraction waste, supporting the circular economy and energy transition goals.
University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-10-01 | "Miguel Baritto", Kumar, A. |
| The development of techno-economic assessment models for hydrogen production via photocatalytic water splittingThe development of techno-economic assessment models for hydrogen production via photocatalytic water splitting University of Alberta | Publication | 2023-02-02 | Jayranjan Maurya, Eskinder Gemechu, Kumar, A. |
| The development of techno-economic models for assessment of cost of energy storage for vehicle-to-grid applications in a cold climateThe development of techno-economic models for assessment of cost of energy storage for vehicle-to-grid applications in a cold climate University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-09-21 | M M Rahman, Eskinder Gemechu, Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| Water intensity for hydrogen production with and without carbon capture and sequestrationLow-carbon hydrogen has gained significant attention, particularly in nations with abundant fossil fuel reserves. While the techno-economic and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission performance of hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is well understood, its impact on water demand remains underexplored. This study evaluates water demand, including water withdrawal, consumption, and discharge, in hydrogen production via steam methane reforming (SMR), auto-thermal reforming (ATR), and natural gas decomposition (NGD), both with and without CCS. CO2 is captured using commercially available amine scrubbing technology and transported via CO2 pipelines. Three SMR-CCS configurations were analyzed: SMR-52 % (52 % CO2 capture from syngas), SMR-85 % (85 % CO2 capture from syngas and flue gas in separate units), and SMR-86 % (86 % CO2 capture from syngas and flue gas in one integrated unit). Water withdrawal values (L/kg-H2) for SMR, ATR, catalytic-thermal NGD, plasma NGD, SMR-52 %, SMR-85 %, SMR-86 %, ATR-CCS, and catalytic-thermal NGD-CCS are 10.29, 14.27, 5.37, 22.57, 12.10, 18.41, 23.36, 16.98, and 7.32, respectively. Water consumption values are 5.34, 9.33, 4.30, 16.73, 6.91, 11.01, 14.43, 11.69, and 5.68 L/kg-H2, respectively. Hydrogen production efficiency was evaluated through net energy ratios (NERs), which range from 0.43 to 0.76. The findings indicate that CCS increases water demand while reducing overall hydrogen production efficiency. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, helping identify challenges and opportunities for sustainable hydrogen deployment, particularly in water-scarce regions. University of Alberta | Publication | 2025-10-01 | "Karina Anaya", Abayomi Olufemi Oni, Kumar, A. |
| Assessment of technologies developed under Future Energy Systems University of Alberta | Publication | 2021-05-03 | Kumar, A. |
