| Canada’s electrified future is a challenge, but one we can achieveThe growth of electric cars begs the question about the electricity system’s ability to meet the increased demand. But, electrification is not just limited to cars, the electricity sector has the potential to provide low cost and low emissions energy for home heating and an increasing number of industrial processes. Today, our electricity system accounts for just over a ¼ of Canada’s final energy demands, while there is no doubt it will need to grow, the inherent efficiency gains in electrification turn the challenge into one that has been achieved before. | Publication | 2021-03-10 | "Sara Hastings-Simon", Tim Weis |
| Danielle Smith may be grandstanding, but Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations do need a fixOp-ed on the clean electricity regulations | Publication | 2023-10-10 | Blake Shaffer, Andrew Leach |
| The Perils of Promising a Costless Energy Transitionopinion piece in the Globe and Mail building off my book and lecture series | Publication | 2023-10-10 | Andrew Leach |
| Between Doom and DenialBook published in 2023 on climate change and the energy transition. | Publication | 2023-10-01 | Andrew Leach |
| Alberta’s quiet but resilient electricity transition● Alberta’s phase-out of coal-fired electricity has been an underreported climate policy success, expected to result in a 40 MtCO2/yr reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.
● Mutually reinforcing regulatory and pricing policies at the provincial and federal levels have helped ensure the durability of the phaseout through major political transitions.
● Natural gas-fired generation now dominates Alberta’s electricity sector; the pathway to future decarbonization of the sector remains uncertain.
● While the rapid electricity transition has enabled provincewide emissions reductions in recent years, continued expansion of oil sands emissions threatens Alberta’s progress.
| Publication | 2021-05-16 | "Benjamin Thibault", Tim Weis, Andrew Leach |
| Sizing Transmission-Scale Battery Energy Storage System with Dynamic Thermal Line RatingV. Avkhimenia, T. Weiss, P. Musilek, Sizing Transmission-Scale Battery Energy Storage System with Dynamic Thermal Line Rating, 2022 IEEE PES General Meeting (GM), Denver, Colorado, 17 – 21 July 2022 University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-07-17 | "Vadim Avkhimenia", Tim Weis, Musilek, P. |
| 2018 Electricity Symposium: The Future of Alberta's Electricity SystemA one-day conference addressing topical issues surrounding Albert'a energy market. Featuring a variety of speakers and participants from different parts of the electricity industry to provide clarity and advance conversations between stakeholders in Alberta's electricity system.
Keynote speakers: Christy Clark, Arlene Strom, Julia Pyper
Panel topics included:
Uncertainty in Alberta's electricity market
The impact of policy changes on electricity markets
Alberta's electricity industry to 2030
Research Spotlights:
UofA/EPCOR Distributed Energy Resource Integration Study
David Brown, UofA: The importance of retail rate design and the value of behind-the-meter solar energy storage
| Activity | 2018-10-04 | Andrew Leach, Tim Weis |
| 2019 Electricity Symposium: The Future of Alberta's Electricity SystemA symposium hosted by the Alberta School of Business’ Centre for Applied Business Research in Energy and the Environment and Future Energy Systems. This one-day conference featured a variety of speakers and participants from different parts of the electricity industry to provide clarity and advance conversations between stakeholders in Alberta’s electricity system.
Keynote speakers: Senator Paula Simons, Minister Sonya Savage, Jillian Buriak
Panel topics included:
Alberta's evolving electricity market
What's next for renewables and storage in Alberta?
Climate change risk, disclosure, and strategy.
Research Spotlights:
CABREE Electricity Modelling Team
Michael Craig, University of Michigan, Electricity Systems in a Changing Climate
Sam Harrison, University of Toronto, Carbon Pricing and the Ontario Electricity market | Activity | 2019-11-06 | Andrew Leach, Tim Weis |
| Alberta's coal phase outAlberta’s electricity market is undergoing an historic change as coal plunges from 70% market share in 2014 to zero within a decade. Tim Weis, Industrial Professor in Mechanical Engineering at the University of Alberta, will discuss what policies and political events occurred for this rapid change, what role renewable electricity may play in Alberta’s future and what it means for Canada's electricity system overall. | Activity | 2021-02-18 | Tim Weis |
| Alberta's Electricity FuturesInvited to present at 7TH ABBY-NET SUMMER SCHOOL AT THE BARIER LAKE STATION (ALBERTA) 2019:
TRENDS IN FUTURE ENERGY TRANSITIONS
Presentation Title: Alberta's Electricity Futures | Activity | 2019-08-14 | Tim Weis |
| Alberta’s Path to Net-ZeroMarket model of Alberta's electricity system out to 2035 to examine technology and policy suites approaching net-zero | Activity | 2024-05-23 | Jessica Van Os, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach |
| Alberta’s wind fleet displacing greenhouse gas emissions and depressing future offset values | Activity | 2024-10-24 | Faith Nobert, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Sergi Arús García |
| Backcasting utility-scale solar market impacts in AlbertaSpeak and present poster at The Future of Alberta's Electricity System Symposium | Activity | 2019-11-06 | Gloria Duran Castillo, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck, Albert Mitjana |
| Canada's Coal Phase Out Policy Implications for Smart Grids in Canada | Activity | 2020-09-15 | Tim Weis |
| Carbon price pass-through in electricity marketInvited to present paper "Carbon price pass-through in electricity market" at 2019 AERE Summer Conference | Activity | 2019-05-31 | Andrew Leach, Blake Shaffer |
| Choosing the Right Tools in the Electricity Transition - A Canadian PerspectiveCoal phase out and renewable energy policy development in Canada with a focus on Ontario and Alberta case studies. | Activity | 2020-05-14 | Tim Weis |
| Grid-Connected and Distributed Renewable Electricity GenerationHosted a session at CanWEA Spring Forum: Grid-Connected and Distributed Renewable Electricity Generation | Activity | 2019-04-17 | Tim Weis |
| Keeping the Lights on with Wind EnergyInvite to present at CanWEA Annual Conference as Keynote Luncheon: Keeping the Lights on with Wind Energy | Activity | 2019-10-08 | Tim Weis |
| Market Impacts of Geographic Dispersion of Wind Energy in AlbertaInvited to present poster at CanWEA Annual Conference. | Activity | 2019-10-09 | Natalia Vergara Bonilla, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| Market impacts of geographic dispersion of wind energy in AlbertaSpeak and present poster at The Future of Alberta's Electricity System Symposium | Activity | 2019-11-06 | Natalia Vergara Bonilla, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| McGill Max Bell LecturesInaugural speaker, featured in 3 lectures (Ottawa, Calgary, Montreal) | Activity | 2024-05-21 | Andrew Leach |
| Interview with Terra InformaInterviewed for Terra Informa podcast following The Future of Alberta's Electricity System symposium | Activity | 2019-12-09 | Andrew Leach |
| Dual cannibalization of energy prices and carbon credits in Alberta’s wind energy fleet | Publication | 2025-01-24 | Faith Nobert |
| Forecasting Solar PV Market Impacts in AlbertaAnalysis of counterfactual scenarios of solar energy develop scenarios in Alberta's electricity market | Publication | 2019-05-01 | Albert Mitjana |
| Green Hydrogen from Wind Energy for Long-Duration Energy Storage in Alberta | Publication | 2021-01-01 | William Noel |
| Improving the value of wind energy through geographic diversity of wind farmsWind farms are often concentrated geographically as they are cited in areas with
strong resources. While this maximizes energy generation, it can decrease the value of
that energy, particularly as the relative amount of wind increases in the overall system.
Wind energy is growing rapidly in Alberta, and this research evaluates the potential to
increase the value of the energy for new wind farms by building them in regions with
lower annual wind speeds but less correlation to the rest of the fleet to capture higher
market prices. The research identifies a trend between the deviation of the location’s
potential generation output from the fleet’s average and the average annual energy
revenue for a wind farm at that location based on data from existing wind farms. This
trend is applied to predict the average annual energy revenue, payback periods, and
internal rate of return for twelve candidate wind farm sites in the northern portion of
the province. | Publication | 2023-02-01 | Taylor Pawlenchuk |
| Market Impacts of Geographic Dispersion of Wind Energy in AlbertaThis thesis presents a methodology to simulate the energy production from hypothetical wind farms in Alberta in order to examine potential future market impacts of a geographically dispersed wind fleet in Alberta. The wind farms’ output are simulated using the Canadian Wind Atlas (CWA) Modelled Historical data (HMD), a publicly available hourly Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and calibrated to historic output from existing wind farms in the province to determine if the data available from the CWA (hourly wind speeds, temperature, and air density), were sufficient to simulate new wind farms in Alberta. A generic loss coefficient was empirically calculated to estimate power output from a wind farm compared to the manufacturer’s power curve at simulated wind speeds from the CWA. By comparing modelled wind farm performance to historical market data from wind farms operating in Alberta, it was found that the CWA tends to underestimate wind speeds from 7:00 am until noon for the spring months, as well as misrepresenting wind speeds for the southwest region of the province (near communities with existing wind farms in Pincher Creek and Fort Macleod). Outside of the southwest of the province, the simulated wind farm’s annual energy production, using the data from the CWA HMD, were within a percentage error between 1% to 10% for wind farms that operated over the same timeframe. By applying this methodology to regions of the province without existing wind farms, the output of new hypothetical wind farms was created in different locations in Alberta. The output of hypothetical wind farms was allows for market impacts simulations of new wind farms in Alberta using the Aurora market model from Energy Exemplar. Preliminary results from Aurora’s model simulation shows that increases in wind energy development will lower market prices during periods of high wind as would be expected. This work enables future analysis examining the potential market changes of a more geographically diverse wind fleet in the province. | Publication | 2020-09-29 | Natalia Vergara Bonilla |
| Pathways to Net-Zero Electricity in Alberta Under Alternative Policy Scenarios | Publication | 2024-06-28 | Jessica Van Os |
| Wind Emissions Displacement in Alberta, CanadaThe aim of this paper is to establish the real-time displacment of emissions resulting from wind energy's historic production in Alberta's electricity market by backcasting counterfactual scenarios with wind output removed from the 2009-2018 market dispatch. | Publication | 2021-05-20 | Sergi Arús García |
| Market Impacts of Wind Energy in AlbertaAbstract selected to present poster at FES Industry Mixer Research to the Real World | Activity | 2020-02-20 | Natalia Vergara Bonilla, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| A Wind Offset Paradox: Alberta’s Wind Fleet Displacing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Depressing Future Offset ValuesAlberta's electricity system has undergone a major transition phasing out coal in less than a decade despite the fact it supplied nearly two-thirds of the market when the transition began. Renewable energy is growing as part of this change, including wind and solar. Significant support for wind energy has come from offset credits in Alberta. policy, which credits wind (and other renewables) with a mix of build and operating margin emissions. This paper looks at historic hourly marginal emissions over the past 10 years and to examine how wind energy's emissions displacement has changed over this timeframe and what that might mean for emissions credits in the future. | Publication | 2025-01-24 | Faith Nobert, Tim Weis, Sergi Arús García, Andrew Leach |
| Alberta’s path to net-zero electricity under alternative policiesMarket model of Alberta's electricity system out to 2035 to examine technology and policy suites approaching net-zero | Publication | 2025-05-16 | Jessica Van Os, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach |
| Alberta’s Renewable Electricity Program: Design, Results, and Lessons LearnedWe present a case study and analysis of Alberta's Renewable Electricity Program, one of a suite of policies implemented between 2015 and 2019 to increase the share of renewable generation in the Canadian province's fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system. The program consisted of a series of reverse auctions for contracts-for-differences which provided successful proponents with a project-specific guaranteed price for power generation. We find that the Renewable Electricity Program was successful in three important ways. First, it contracted for new renewable generation at prices in the range of CA$30 to CA$43/MWh (US$23 to US$33/MWh), well below expectations and among the lowest procurement costs globally at the time. These contracts have resulted in gains to the government of CA$75.5 million (US$60 million) to date. Second, the program ushered new entrants into Alberta's power market, including through mandated Indigenous equity participation in one round of auctions. Third, we find that price discovery and the incentive to develop new projects provided by the program spurred privately-financed development. While the program was a success, we argue that its design did not adequately reward high-value generation, which could have become an issue in future auction rounds. We analyse design alternatives that would have improved the program's dynamic efficiency. | Publication | 2022-12-01 | Andrew Leach, "Sara Hastings-Simon", Blake Shaffer, Tim Weis |
| Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Wind Energy Output in AlbertaThis model uses IPCC climate forecasts to examine the potential changes in air temperature and wind speeds and how they might affect existing and future wind farm output in Alberta. | Publication | 2024-05-01 | "Madeline Cline", Tim Weis |
| Biomass’ role in Greener Albertan Electricity Generation | Publication | 2022-04-30 | "Menmon Z", Tim Weis, "Niet T", Andrew Leach |
| Calibrating Canadian Wind Atlas Data to Historic Market PerformanceExamining historic market data from wind farms in Albert and comparing it to the Canadian Wind Atlas. Developing dynamic loss coefficient in order to use the data to develop typical meteorological year output for geographic dispersion modelling. | Publication | 2020-08-01 | Natalia Vergara Bonilla, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| Canada’s post-COVID Climate ChallengeClimate policymaking in crisis: the impact of declining oil prices, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war in Canada | Publication | 2025-05-15 | "Kathryn Harrison", Andrew Leach |
| Canadian Electricity Markets during the COVID -19 Pandemic: An Initial Assessment | Publication | 2020-08-01 | Andrew Leach, Nic Rivers, Blake Shaffer |
| Deep Reinforcement Learning-based Operation of Transmission Battery Storage with Dynamic Thermal Line RatingIt is well known that dynamic thermal line rating has the potential to use power transmission infrastructure more effectively by allowing higher currents when lines are cooler; however, it is not commonly implemented. Some of the barriers to implementation can be mitigated using modern battery energy storage systems. This paper proposes a combination of dynamic thermal line rating and battery use through the application of deep reinforcement learning. In particular, several algorithms based on deep deterministic policy gradient and soft actor critic are examined, in both single- and multi-agent settings. The selected algorithms are used to control battery energy storage systems in a 6-bus test grid. The effects of load and transmissible power forecasting on the convergence of those algorithms are also examined. The soft actor critic algorithm performs best, followed by deep deterministic policy gradient, and their multi-agent versions in the same order. One-step forecasting of the load and ampacity does not provide any significant benefit for predicting battery action. University of Alberta | Publication | 2022-11-29 | "Vadim Avkhimenia", Matheus Mingatos Fernandes Gemignani, Tim Weis, Musilek, P. |
| Green with Envy? Hydrogen production in a carbon-constrained world | Publication | 2024-01-01 | Mark Droessler, Andrew Leach |
| Mapping The Evolution of Canada’s Wind Energy FleetWind energy has grown steadily in Canada since the early 2000s, over which time there has been significant technology change. This work examines the changes in wind farm configurations and sizes across the country during the past 20 years. | Publication | 2022-07-01 | William Noel, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| Market impacts of geographically dispersed wind farms in AlbertaSimulating wind energy developments in Northern Alberta to examine the potential market benefits of wind farm operations in regions with less correlated weather regimes than historical locations. | Publication | 2022-04-30 | Natalia Vergara Bonilla, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| Modelling wind-hydrogen storage in Alberta’s electricity marketExamining the opportunity, constraints, performance and economic requirements for green hydrogen system viability in Alberta’s electricity market. Economic viability will depend on exogenous variables including carbon pricing, natural gas futures, as well as forecasts for renewable curtailment or arbitrage opportunities in Alberta’s electricity market under varying renewable energy fleet scenarios. | Publication | 2021-05-01 | William Noel, Tim Weis, Andrew Leach, Brian Fleck |
| Optimizing Photovoltaic Output in a Northern Market | Publication | 2022-04-30 | Gloria Duran Castillo, Andrew Leach, Tim Weis, Brian Fleck |
| Remote community deep electrification scenario analysis: A grid extension case study in Kivalliq Canada | Publication | 2024-09-01 | Brian Fleck, Faith Nobert, Tim Weis, Julia Zonneveld |
| Revenue-optimized photovoltaic orientation in a northern competitive electricity market with carbon offsetsOptimizing solar orientation for maximum revenues as Alberta’s fleet grows | Publication | 2023-10-03 | Gloria Duran Castillo, Andrew Leach, Tim Weis, Brian Fleck |
| Toward Sustainable Electricity Markets: Merit-Order Dynamics on Photovoltaic Energy Price Duck Curve and Emissions DisplacementUsing historical merit order curves, this work examines the displacement of other market participants as solar fleets are built into Alberta's electricity market | Publication | 2025-05-18 | Gloria Duran Castillo, Andrew Leach, Tim Weis, Brian Fleck |
| Wind power emissions displacement in Alberta's electricity marketWind energy can generate emissions offsets in Alberta's greenhouse gas emissions framework. The work examines historical generators displacement as a result of wind farms in Alberta by examining marginal dispatch in the Alberta merit order over the past 8 years. | Publication | 2020-07-01 | Sergi Arús García, Andrew Leach, Tim Weis, Faith Nobert |
| Hydrogen export through Churchill, ManitobaAnalysis of energy export options from western Canada using the Hudson's Bay Rail Line | Publication | 2023-05-05 | "Adam Gareau", Tim Weis |
| Kivalliq Hydro-Fibre Link Reivew | Publication | 2021-03-31 | Tim Weis, Julia Zonneveld |
| Power Demand in the Time of COVIDIn response to COVID-19, governments across Canada and around the world have instituted various degrees of physical distancing restrictions. While these are essential to protecting public health and limit ultimate economic damage, they have led to a contraction of near-term economic activity. We use power demand information to track this evolution. | Publication | 2020-05-09 | Andrew Leach, Blake Shaffer, "Nic Rivers" |
| Ana Patricia Oliver HernandezAna had finished her undergrad in business (accounting) prior to her visit. Supervised by Andrew Leach | Activity | 2022-05-04 | Andrew Leach |
| Visting student - Hannah RombergShe had completed her MSc before visiting via an exchange program. Supervised by Tim Weis | Activity | 2022-05-04 | Tim Weis |
